2.2.1 HUMAN RESOURCES

The population of Kosova is undergoing a demographic transition phase, characterized by a slow fall of all vital figures, high fertility level, low mortality rate, and a very unfavorable social and economic structure.

In the past, demographic problems were not treated as a part of the development policy, therefore demographic problems have permanently increased.

The population of Kosova has a very high birthrate, fertility, i.e. generation renewal.

Despite a relative decrease of the birth rate, the absolute birth number in Kosova is on an increase. Currently, the annual natural growth of the population of Kosova is about 45.000 inhabitants (the medium fertility rate).

Such a dynamic natural population growth is also a result of a low mortality rate (4,5 promile - the lowest in Europe. This mortality rate of the population of Kosova is the lowest in the whole region, besides the high mortality rate of the new-born children (55 promiles). The difference between natality and mortality is relative, even though both of them show a decreasing tendency.

All the analyses and studies regarding such trends in Kosova are based on statistical estimations (The Center for Demographic Studies and other institutions based on the trends of demographic figures), because the last population census in Kosova was carried out in 1981. According to the above-mentioned sources in Kosova there are 2.3 million inhabitants (1997). Kosova has the highest density rate in the Balkan Peninsula, and it is placed among the countries with the highest population density in general. Within a surface of 10.887 km2, there are about 210 inhabitants per km2.

Actually, the net reproduction of population of Kosova is around 2,1% (21 promiles). This dynamics of population reproduction provides a high natural growth, a young age structure, a low coefficient of economic activity of population, and an expansive reproduction of man power.

Such a level of demographic growth is a result of the low economic and social development of Kosova, a low economic activity, and unemployment, in particular of women, a low level of social standard, women's position in the society and family, and several other factors which are important for the phase of demographic transition.

In the age structure of the population of Kosova, the participation of the group age from 0-14 years is 34,4%, the group age from 15-65 years is 60,2%, and over 60 years is around 5,4%. The group age of pre-school children participates with 20% of the population of Kosova, 7-14 years around 15%, the working quota which includes men from 15-65 years and women from 15-60 years, includes 57,8% of the population (around 1.330.000 persons)

The quota of the labour capable population in the future economic development of Kosova is considered as the most important development factor. But at the same time, it is a responsibility of policy-making creators, that in determining the future model of the economic development, this factor should have an appropriate treatment.

The age structure of the population

* Estimation

Based on the last population census in 1981, it results that the active population is 22,6 % of the total number of population, or around 380.000 persons, out of which 84 % men. Around 74,5 % of population is a supported category of population, while only 2,9 % realized some kind of personal income. For 1996 it has been estimated that the working contingent (quota) should be 57,8 % of the total number of population, or 1.330.000 persons, an active population around 469.000 persons or about 20% of the total population, and finally the quota for unemployed (unactived) people is around 861.000 persons, or 64,7 %, of the working quota.

During the period from 1989 and further, the number of jobs in state sector has been reduced for around 100.000, while to the number of persons who for the first time are searching for job, is added a number of 31.000 persons each year. As a result, actually the number of unemployed people is 217.000 persons, who for the first time during this period applied at the labor market, 145.000 persons are expelled from their jobs, 125.000 are officially unemployed having applied at the main labor office. This means that there is a total number of 861.000 unemployed persons. This unemployment rate in Kosova is the highest one in the whole region.

(* Riinvests estimations)

The education structure

Even though during the period following World War Two in the field of education a lot has been done, the illiteracy rate in Kosova in 1981 was around 18% (9,4% for men, and 26,4% for women). The population over 15 years of age with uncompleted elementary school was 24,8%, implemented elementary school (low cycle) 17%, elementary school eight years period 34,5%, secondary school 17,3% and high to university level education 3,3%.

The education structure of the population

In the aspect of the job offer, the qualification structure is important, according to the kind of elementary school completed. In Kosova, from this category a number of around 51% has been oriented to professional training schools, around 25% to gymnasium, and the rest to skilled workers. In this regard, in the absence of the absorption capability of the work power industry, a large number of young people are oriented to the branches which would enable them to find any job in the administration and further education.

Kosova is a very rich region with underground and ground resources, climate, flora and fauna which are favorable and different ones. Taking into consideration its relative small space, the natural property (wealth), as a "latent national capital", not enough explored, represents an attractive potential, which under a multi-disciplinary approach, in the scope of regional and wider integrations, some new development prospects can be reached.

1. The land represents the main natural resource. Because of high population density (210 inhabitants in 1km2), Kosova is quite a poor region with agriculture land, while in Europe it is estimated to be 0,52% ha, of agriculture land per head, in Kosova this proportion is 0,25% ha only.

From 1.088.700 ha, which is the total land fund, the agriculture land includes about 583.801 ha, or 53,6%, forests 447.456 ha, or 41,1%, and others 57.443 ha, or 5,3%. (tab. no. 18 and 19).

In the framework of the agriculture land, the cultivated part participates with 70%, while pastures with 30%. In the absence of a stronger agriculture development support, in the framework of the cultivated land structure, surfaces planted with grains and vegetables, fruits and vineyards have a tendency to decline, while pastures have a permanent increase, which shows about the extensive way use of the land.

The quality of the agriculture land is estimated to differ as a result of the impact of many factors during the geologic history. According to the land quality, the cultivated land is classified in 8 classes. Usually, the first five classes are used for agriculture production. According to researches, in the first five classes there is a total of 455.000 ha, out of which 253.600 ha is used for planting, or 55,7%. Other surfaces, of 201.400 ha, out of which 105.100 ha of first and second class are the most fertile surfaces, occupied by different constructions and other destinations. In the absence of proper quality land, for the agriculture products are used even the classes VI to VII which have a much lower production capability.

Kosova has a considerable forestry fund, but the wooden massives are highly damaged by cutting and the use without any criteria. The structure of the wood mass is rather poor, and it is dominated by the wood used for heating purposes.

2. The water potentials in Kosova are shared with an unequal proportion according to its regions. The western part of the region has a lot of water sources as well as underground water, and almost a half of the land water quantities. The eastern part of Kosova lacks water sources and underground water, while the main land water quantities are in the suburban parts.

The total annual water capacities in Kosova are estimated at 3.648 mil. m3, out of which, toward the river Drini valley 58,5%, river Ibri 28,2%, Lepenci 7,2%, and Morava of Binca 5,8%. In order to provide sufficient water quantities in long term periods, the accumulative systems are necessary to be constructed.

Kosova has a great potential of thermal water capacities. There are known about 32 sources with different chemical components, temperature and capacity.

3. Energy resources. The main source of primary energy in Kosova represents lignite coal. Other sources of energy such as oil, gas, uranium, etc. have not been explored yet.

Coal is a traditional source of energy from the group of so-called non-regenerative sources. In the absence of other sources, beside a rather low caloric value, coal in Kosova is generally used as a row material in energy. The main sources of lignite are concentrated in two allocations: Kosova and Dukagjini. According to researches, the coal reserves in Kosova are estimated to be at 11.5 bill tons, while the research level is about 85.1%, which is a very favorable element for the exploit and for the implementation of the new coal based projects. The quality and reserves of the lignite of Kosova are much lower, regarding the low caloric value of the lignite.

The participation of the reserves of the lignite of Kosova in the lignite reserves of former Yugoslavia was about 59%, while the coal reserves were equivalent to 43,3%. The coal production in Kosova for many years had a permanent increase. Over 90% of the production quantities were used in industry, mainly in production of electric energy.

In Kosova, there are two electric power plants, constructed and operating on the lignite basis: Kosova A, with a capacity of 79 MW, and Kosova B, with a capacity of 62 MW. In the framework of Kosova's Electro-economy system, there are several other capacities operating based on lignite such as: drying capacities with an annual capacity of 610.000 tons, gas with a capacity of 480 m3, the fertilizers factory of 360 tons, and a heating plant with a capacity of 260 tons per hour.

4. Metals. Kosova is a rather rich region with non-ferrous metals, in particular with bauxite, lead minerals, zinc and nickel. The reserves of bauxite are estimated to be at 9,7 mill. tons, while the potential reserves up to 14 mill. tons. The annual bauxite mineral production is estimated to 110-120 thousand tons. There have been also built some processing capacities of such minerals.

The balance lead and zinc reserves are estimated to be at 53 mill. tons, while the potential reserves up to 61,5 mill. tons. The annual production of lead and zinc minerals has a declining tendency.

The lead and zinc minerals, produced in Kosova, have a poly-metallic concentration. There are also some other metals in their concentration, such as cadmium, germanium, copper, bismuth, silver, gold, indium, and non-metal of barite. The reserves of nickel in Kosova are estimated at 24 mill. tons, with a rather high concentration of 1,3% nickel and 0,065% cobalt. The refining process is done at the nickel plant in Gllogovc, which has a high quality technology. Kosova has also some considerable reserves of chrome and mangane. In the region of Gjakova there have been discovered some reserves of chrome, estimated at 89.000 tons, which were exported as non-processed minerals, while the annual production of the chrome mineral is about 2,4 thousand tons.

Some mangane reserves have been discovered at Novoberda, estimated at 1,36 mill. tons, while the potential reserves seem to be at 2,9 mill. tons. After World War Two, Kosova had a considerable increase of its basic means, basically in the social sector of the economy. During the period of 40 years, the economy of Kosova, beside the disproportions on a development level, due to a high population vitality, has shown a high growth rate, change of structure and absorption of technical and technological achievements.

Besides the fixed funds means volume for an economic development, the quality is also important, which can be measured through their structure, like construction facilities, equipment, the amortization level of the production process, etc. From this aspect, the tendencies in the economy of Kosova have been positive because there is a permanent increase of the equipment.

Currently, Kosova and its economy are in a phase of destruction in which inherited institutions and funds are used very little.

Mineral Reserves in mill. ton

5. Non-metals. There is a clear evidence of non-metal potentials in Kosova, such as magnesium, kaolin, etc. The magnesium minerals are found in some ultra basic and basic rocks. In Kosova there are some significant reserves of magnesium, estimated at about 8,4 mill. tons. Based on sufficient raw materials, there are some processing capacities of sinter magnesium and roasted magnesium.

Kaolin is a non-metal used in many branches of the industry, such as during the production of different construction materials, paper industry, rubber, plastics, porcelain, and some other materials highly resistant to fire. The balance reserves of kaolin in Kosova are estimated to be at 2,3 mill. tons, while the argyle which is resistant to fire, at some 1,5 mill. tons, ceramic argyle at 2 mill. tons, bentonite 35 mill. tons, etc.

Taking into consideration the reserves of underground minerals, considerable processing capacities have been constructed. These capacities were important nucleuses for an expansion of the processing industry.