By Isuf Hajrizi
NEW YORK

A U.S. expert on Balkan affairs is concerned about another Bosnia-like conflict erupting in
Kosova and is calling on Washington and the international community to take "serious"
action and help resolve the issue before it explodes.
   Barnett Rubin, director of the New York-based Center for Preventive Action of the
Council on Foreign Relations, said it was time for both the U.S. and Europe to show they
are serious about resolving the Kosova issue by convening a high-level conference that
would divert the danger of conflict in the South Balkans.
   "The U.S. and the major international organizations, such as the European Union, the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and the United Nations should come
up with a coordinated policy framework for dealing not just with Kosova, but for the entire
region of the South Balkans, including Macedonia and Albania as well," Rubin told Illyria in
an interview this week.  He said, in addition to sanctions, the international community
should show that they are serious about adopting a rehabilitation package for the region in
the event that there is a set of political agreements between Albanians and Serbs.
    "You need initiative, you need ideas, you need determination, you need resources,"
Rubin said, adding "Because there isn't violence there now, it is very easy to do nothing."
   Rubin, who edited and co-wrote a 135-page report last year, "Toward Comprehensive
Peace in Southeast Europe," said, "The U.S. should not wait until something like
Srebrenica [in Bosnia] to happen in the South Balkans and then send in the troops."
  In a letter published in the New York Times last week in response to a news story the
paper published recently informing about the growing frustration in Kosova, Rubin warned
that Albanians may be abandoning their nonviolent resistance to Serbian rule.
   "There is a growing capacity of an armed struggle in Kosova which is going to be very
dangerous," Rubin told Illyria.  He said Kosova has not gotten the necessary policy
response from the U.S and the international community, which, he said, may strengthen
the radical wing.
   The former professor of Columbia and Yale Universities said, Rugova and all the people
in Kosova who would like to have a kind of peaceful settlement are in a "very tight spot,
because on one hand they are committed to nothing short of a republic or independence,
yet they haven't delivered it."
     This has made Albanians impatient, Rubin said, stressing that "if there were some
concessions made from the Serbs, such as if schools were opened, if people started to
get jobs they have lost, people might say 'we are still in favor of independence but
meanwhile we can get on with our lives in some way' and seek some way of doing that."
   "But under the current situation they don't see any benefit whatsoever from the
[Rugova's] current path," Rubin said, emphasizing, "Some people in Kosova are realizing
that their leaders are not getting done what they have promised and are turning towards
violence or supporting it, even though that's irrational."
   Rubin was quick to point out, however, that people who would suffer most from an open
conflict in the region would be the people in Kosova themselves.     "But when people are
frustrated they make irrational decisions and that's dangerous," Rubin added.
   Rubin said the crisis in Albania has weakened both the political influence of Tirane and
the bargaining position of the Albanians in Kosova.
   "Many people were hoping that a strong respected democratic government in Albania
would be something that would help give all the ethnic Albanians in the region some sense
of pride and be very helpful in solving this problem.  But now it looks as if Albania is not
going to be in a position to give anybody a sense of pride and help in solving this problem.
We have lost one of the tools we thought we had to work with."
   "Serbs and Albanians today are not in a position to reach an agreement on the status of
Kosova.  And I don't think they should even try," Rubin advised.  He said both sides
should try to understand each other better and try to make life better for the people of
Kosova.
   "They should work out agreements on confidence-building measures, looking to a time
when borders are less important in the South Balkans than, unfortunately, are today.  They
should agree to disagree on that and try to reach agreements on several other issues."  In
Rubin's view, Albanians can agree on "some kind of interim status for Kosova, which
might be some kind of de facto autonomy or republic status."
    "The Kosovars don't have to accept that, but at least that would provide them with a
degree of selfgovernment while they continue their peaceful struggle to achieve what they
believe," Rubin said.

(For more, check Illyria Home Page:  Illyria-News.com)