Bosnia II ?

By MISHA GLENNY

LONDON -- Ministers and ambassadors from 51 nations gather in Bonn today for their
annual review of how successfully the Dayton agreement on unifying Bosnia is being
carried out. They will hear complaints that local leaders and international officials have
been stalling, sowing confusion, missing deadlines and just plain acting ineptly.
    But the senior delegates in Bonn ought to take a few minutes to discuss another Balkan
problem: Kosovo.
    Bosnia is a shocking example of what happens when things go wrong in the Balkans.
Kosovo is a disturbing example of where that may well happen again soon.
    The province in southern Serbia is home to the former Yugoslavia's most intractable
conflict, which has been likened to an unexploded bomb. Ninety percent of Kosovo's more
than two million people are Albanians who have suffered discrimination at the hands of the
Serbian authorities. Human rights groups cite arbitrary arrests and beatings of Albanians.
    In the past, diplomats have dismissed Kosovo as the accident that never happens -- the
bomb that never explodes. There has been much tut-tutting and mild pressure, but no real
push for a negotiated solution to Kosovo's problems. In the last few months, however, the
situation in the province has steadily deteriorated.
    Until recently, the Albanians of Kosovo followed the advice of their self-proclaimed
President, Ibrahim Rugova, and restricted themselves to peaceful protests. But the last 18
months has witnessed the emergence of the Kosovo Liberation Army, a shady group that
has claimed responsibility for dozens of attacks on Serbian police officers and civilians. It
has also killed Albanians accused of collaborating with the Serbs.
    Members of the Kosovo Liberation Army stepped out of the shadows for the first time
nine days ago when three masked men in military fatigues attended the funeral of an
Albanian teacher, Halit Geci, who had been killed in a shootout between the group and the
Serbian police. Brandishing semiautomatic weapons, the three swore that they would
avenge Mr. Geci's death and Kosovo's Albanians.
    That finally drew the attention of diplomats. Klaus Kinkel, the German Foreign Minister,
last week described the surge in violence in the province as alarming and announced that
Germany and France would be urgently looking for ways to contain the problem. The
American chargé d'affaires in Belgrade, Richard C. Miles, visited Kosovo several days ago
to appeal for calm. If Kosovo descends into violence, it may well spill over to neighboring
Macedonia, where this year occasional shootouts have punctured the uneasy calm
between Albanians and Macedonians.
    Mr. Rugova, a moderate, is fast losing support among his own people. Last week, he
renewed his appeal for American and European mediation. Unfortunately, the Yugoslav
President, Slobodan Milosevic, still the master of Serb politics, has stated repeatedly that
Kosovo is an internal problem and that no outside mediation is necessary.
    Serbs say that they cannot make concessions in Kosovo because of its historical
importance to them. It contains their most important religious monuments and is the
symbol of Serbia's medieval statehood. But they must realize that Kosovo is now of no
economic or strategic value to them. For their part, the Kosovo Albanians must appreciate
that they are not going to get independence overnight. If the Kosovo Liberation Army
begins to dictate politics in Kosovo, there will be large-scale bloodshed.

    Misha Glenny, author of "The Fall of Yugoslavia," is completeing a history of Balkan
Nationalism.

Copyright 1997 The New York Times Company