Kosovo Tempts the Meddlesome to Incite Another
Ethnic War
Balkans: The Europeans whose 'help' ignited Bosnia
are at it again, and the U.S. may be
drawn further into the fight.
By JONATHAN CLARKE
With attention transfixed by Asia's economic travails,
it is easy to forget yesterday's foreign
policy fixations. Bosnia, for example. Having
talked a big game of resistance, Congress
has acquiesced in the administration's decision
to extend the U.S. mission there with
barely a murmur of protest.
Such moments of
inattention can be exceedingly dangerous. Especially when, as is
happening today, America's friends are launching
policy initiatives that may reignite a
Balkan shooting war -- this time with U.S. forces
at the center.
The issue is a
new German and French plan for Kosovo.
Kosovo is a small,
economically backward region inside Serbia populated by a large
majority of ethnic Albanian Muslims. The trouble
is that Serbs regard it as the cradle of
their civilization. All the makings of tragedy
are present. The Kosovo Albanian leaders
demand instant independence, a demand backed
up by assassinations carried out by a
shadowy "liberation army." On Sunday they announced
that the "armed struggle" had
begun.
On the Serbian
side, extremists like Vojislav Seselj are exploiting patriotic passions
over Kosovo to outflank political moderates inside
Serbia proper. Communal violence is
already erupting. Arms are plentiful, with 12
Kalashnikov rifles available for a pair of Nike
sneakers.
In 1991, secessionist
pressures paved the way for the disintegration of Yugoslavia and
the resultant Bosnian tragedy. With this lesson
still fresh, it might be expected that
Western policy would adopt a conciliatory, cautious
posture by allowing existing regional
initiatives time to take root. One such is the
agreement reached on Nov. 4 by Yugoslav
President Slobodan Milosevic and Albanian Prime
Minister Fatos Nano to consult closely
about Kosovo's future. This is an encouraging
development, fueled by a new Greek
political and economic interest in the Balkans.
A successful Balkan summit in Crete in
November promised closer regional economic integration,
a development that might ease
Kosovo's dire economic problems.
This is too simple
for Germany. And U.S. actions threaten to make the situation even
more volatile.
Having apparently
learned nothing from their ill-judged intervention in 1991, the
German and French foreign ministers sent a crisply
worded letter to Serbia and Kosovo
leaders at the end of November exhorting them
to start a dialogue about Kosovo's future.
Not surprisingly, those actions hardened Kosovo's
demands for independence and
promoted a walkout by Serbian leaders at an early
December conference reviewing the
Dayton peace accords.
The circumstances
are hauntingly familiar. In 1991, Germany's partners were aghast at
Germany's premature recognition of Croatia and
Slovenia but were powerless to protest.
Both Britain and France needed German assistance
with the about-to-be-finalized
Maastricht treaty on European union. Today, similar
conditions apply. With European
monetary union on the horizon, Britain and France
are once again in thrall to Germany.
Their stake in the evolving EU financial architecture
is more important than Kosovo. So
they are content to go along with Germany over
this apparently peripheral issue.
In 1991, Germany
thought it was being helpful. By involving the international community
in the Balkan dispute, it expected to deflect
the tide of war. The opposite happened. The
same risk from well-meaning but fundamentally
ill-conceived outside intervention is
present today with potentially more serious consequences.
Ethnic Albanians
are spread widely throughout the Balkans, in Montenegro, in the
former Yugoslav republic of Macedonia, in Bulgaria,
Greece and, of course, Albania. If
they conclude that they have Western backing
for secession from Serbia, they may act
rashly. Ethnic violence in Kosovo might well
spill over to involve all of the Balkans.
This is an extraordinarily
unattractive scenario with special negatives for the U.S.: War
in Kosovo could prolong the Bosnian deployment
indefinitely.
The Clinton administration
needs to take immediate action. Its first target must be the
self-appointed nation-builders on the U.S. team
who are itching to put their pet theories to
the test. The State Department's Bosnia supremo,
Robert Gelbard, for example, has
brought prominent Kosovo Albanians to Washington
to showcase their demands.
With U.S. troops
on the line, the administration and Congress should put all of
America's efforts into establishing a peace in
Bosnia that is durable enough to influence
peace in Kosovo.
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Jonathan Clarke Is a Former Member of the British
Foreign Service Affiliated With the
Cato Institute in Washington. E-mail: Jcahi@mindspring.com