The International Journal of the Albanian Studies, Volume 2, Spring 1998 is out of print now.The following is the Introduction to "The Serb-Albanian War, and International Community's Miscalculations" - one of the many studies focusing on the Albanian Question.
Shinasi A. Rama
Columbia University
The Serb-Albanian War, and International Community's Miscalculations.
INTRODUCTION
The
announced Serb–Albanian War in Kosova exploded in the first week of March
1998. Since then, the fighting has intensified steadily. Entire towns and
villages are being razed to the ground, dozens of Albanian civilians are
being slaughtered everyday, and hundreds of thousands of people have become
refugees. The fierce resistance that the poorly armed Albanian peasants
have put up to the well-equipped Serb army, to the paramilitary troops,
and to the Serb police has left the analysts perplexed. Although armed
only with very light weapons, the Kosova Liberation Army (KLA), as the
umbrella organization that leads the Albanian resistance is known, has
grown to about 80,000 fighters. The KLA controls a large part of the rural
areas, which according to some estimates, is approximately 40 percent of
the territory of Kosova.
Policymakers and analysts that have followed closely the political process
in Kosova, are puzzled and perplexed by the recent developments. For most
of them, the most disturbing aspect of the Serb–Albanian War is that the
Albanians have definitely switched en masse from their exemplary non-violent
Ghandian behavior to the more traditional, and their opinion the more effective
method of realizing their goal of gaining the independence of Kosova. The
main concern of policymakers is that the longer the Serb–Albanian War lasts,
the more the chances are increased that a part of the Albanians in Albania,
if not even the Albanian government itself, will have no other choice but
to support the Albanians in Kosova and fight on their side. The possibility
that the further prolongation of the conflict in Kosova will spillover
and destabilize Macedonia appears almost certain.
At the regional security level, the expectations
are that in case the war spreads, all of the Balkans will blow up. Croatians,
and Bosnians, might decide that while Serbia has its hands tied fighting
the Albanians in Kosova, it might be payback time. Croats and Bosnians
could decide to settle their 'federal' problem by force. On the other hand,
even Bulgaria is being prepared to play a few tricks demanding territory
that it ceded before to Yugoslavia in 1945 and it will continue to be extremely
sensitive towards Macedonia. Bulgaria sees here an opportunity to play
a role in the game and attract sufficient attention from the competing
interests in the Balkans, from the Russians and the Americans alike.
I contend that there are some valuable lessons
to be learned from the handling of the Serb-Albanian situation by the international
community. One of the very first lessons to be drawn is that the post-Dayton
strategy of the international community aimed at the solving of the Balkan
riddles has backslided. One of its major objectives, the prevention of
the explosion of the Serb-Albanian War and the preservation of the status
quo in Kosova was not achieved. Yet, surprisingly enough, although, it
has utterly failed to prevent the Serb-Albanian War in Kosova, the strategy
of the international community has not changed substantially.
The objectives of the international community
appear to have remained the same, plus sa change et plus c'ést la
meme chose. Among these objectives are, first, the preservation of the
rump Yugoslavia and the consideration of the war in Kosova as an internal
matter of Serbia, the logical end of which is to force Albanians to remain
within Serbia. Second, the containment of the conflict in Kosova and the
avoidance of the spillover in Albania and Macedonia. Third, the setting
of an arms blockade so that Albanian resistance in Kosova would be spent
easier and faster. Fourth, showing some political support for Rugova and
his non-violent movement and in the case Rugova fails, play the Albanian
game with other 'realist' Albanian politicians. Fifth, and more importantly,
to save the Dayton Agreement and the "three in one and each on its own"
formula that, so far, with heavy support from the United States, has kept
Bosnia together.
Without questioning the logic of this policy,
I argue that its fundamental assumptions are mistaken. I examine the reasons
why the policy pursued by the international community in the past could
not prevent the Serb–Albanian conflict. I suggest that by insisting on
the same objectives while the reality on the ground has radically changed,
the international community's Balkan policy is headed towards another downfall.
The fundamental unchanged assumption of the international community's strategy,
the belief that a second Yugoslav experiment could be repeated successfully
with Serbs, Montenegrins and Albanians is, under the current circumstances,
extremely imprudent and unrealistic. Similarly unforeseeing is the belief
that the panacea for the Balkan quagmire rests with the internal democratization
of Serbia. On the one hand, Miloshevic has acted ruthlessly and efficiently
in defense of the 'Serb Cause' and for the creation of a Greater Serbia.
He has been determined to expel the Albanians from Kosova and to eliminate
them as a political factor in Yugoslavia. Even the Serb opposition and
its leaders, do not want to talk about any kind of co-existence with Albanians.
They beat the drum of the Serb victimization and hatred against Albanians
louder than Miloshevic does. On the other hand, the Albanians in Kosova
do not recognize the Serb state. For the last twenty years they have considered
Serbia as another country that has occupied their own country. These are
some strong reassurances that the chances that the current containment
and appeasement policy a la Münich described above might fail even
in the future have increased substantially.
I
proceed in the following way. In the first section, I review the Western
policy towards the Albanian question in Yugoslavia and the arguments used
to justify the continued colonization of Kosova. I focus especially on
the effect that the signing and the implementation of the Dayton Agreement
had on the Albanians and their expectations for independence from Serbia.
In the second section, I briefly analyze the post-Dayton developments,
then I focus on evolution of the current crisis. In the third section,
I present the arguments why the current strategy of the international community
is bound to fail. In the conclusion, I argue that the international community
ought to realize that attempts aiming at the partition, continued colonization,
or regionalization of Kosova are the real threats to the regional stability.
These attempts inevitably will prolong the conflict, they will force Albania
to enter the war and definitely will lead to a destabilization of Macedonia.
It is high time to realize that there are no realistic chances for Kosova
to remain any longer as part of the rump Yugoslavia, save as a Serb colony.
The international community should give very serious consideration to the
recognition of Kosova as an independent political entity. This is the only
possible way to avoid the spillover of the war that could involve all the
neighboring states.
1. THE WEST AND THE ALBANIAN QUESTION IN YUGOSLAVIA
In
the period between 1990 and 1995, pressed to find quick and viable solutions
to the multitude of problems created by the wars of independence in Slovenia
and Croatia and the War in Bosnia, the West paid lip service to the Albanian
question in Yugoslavia. The reason must be sought in the relative peacefulness
of the region. After the violent expression of Serb nationalism culminated
in the revocation of the status of Kosova as a Constituent Federal Unit
in 1989, it appeared that the crisis had subsumed.
Moreover, the behavior of Albanians seemed to
have radically changed; traditionally a warlike people, the Albanians in
Kosova appeared to have been resigned to a non-violent Ghandian mood. The
Europeans admired and praised the harmless non-violent Albanian 'resistance'
but consistently ignored its goal of achieving independence for Kosova
with peaceful means.
1.1.1 Albanians and Their Parallel State in Kosova
Ignoring
the Serb political system, Albanians proclaimed the independence of Kosova
in 1990 and elected the literary critic Ibrahim Rugova as their President.
Albanians and their elite were convinced that the international community
would respect the principles of self-determination and the right of the
people to choose their own regime. They put their faith in the good will
of the international community and patiently waited for the international
community to recognize their right to have an independent Albanian state
in Kosova.
From
1989 to this day, Kosova has continued to be a colony of Serbia. However,
the Serb state presence has been limited to the Army barracks, the police,
and the administrative apparatus filled by the Serb colons who were living
in Kosova. While Albanians were patiently waiting for recognition from
the international community, they managed to create one of the most efficient
voluntary state structures in the world. For example, Albanians who worked
in the West paid a three percent income tax voluntarily to the government
of Kosova in exile. The government of Kosova used these funds to support
the health system, the education system and the social system of the Albanian
parallel state in Kosova. The extent of this system becomes evident when
one is reminded that in 1990, the Serbs had thrown all the Albanians out
of jobs and Kosova with a population of about two million people had a
stable unemployment rate of 85 per cent, the overwhelming majority of those
employed being Serb colons.
To
the analysts, it was clear that with Albanians refusing to fight, and as
long as other exacerbated ethnic problems in the former Yugoslavia persisted,
the status quo would continue to reign in Kosova. Busy fighting wars in
Bosnia and Croatia, the Serb regime tolerated the Albanian parallel state
structures. They did not want to have a third front in Kosova. On the other
hand, encouraged by their leaders like Rugova, who continually insisted
that the recognition from the West was imminent, Albanians were waiting.
They did almost nothing to attract the attention of the international community
and in return they got nothing.
1.1.2 The International Community and Kosova: A Prelude
Thanks
to the relative peace of the region, none of the Albanian leaders in the
former Yugoslavia were ever invited in any of the Conferences that dealt
with the problems generated by the dissolution of Yugoslavia, including
here the Conference of 1992 in London. The international community insisted
that Kosova was an integral part of Serbia and there was no willingness
on its part to deal with it on a par with the other successor states. Consequently,
it sought to manage the conflict either by preserving the status quo or
by forcing the Albanians and the Serbs to find a modus vivendi within the
rump Yugoslavia. This policy has been stated, clearly and openly, almost
by all officials and diplomats who were pronounced on Kosova, independently
of the NGO's, the international organizations and the governmental agencies
they represented. The valuable pieces of advice to the Albanians consisted
in the promotion of dialogue between Serbs and Albanians, the protection
of human rights, free media, the security of international monitors, and
the establishment of the missions to observe the progress made in Kosova.
An
exception to the general indifference of the international community was
the interest shown by the US. In this context, a turning point on the international
community's interest on Kosova is represented by the Christmas Warning
issued by President Bush a few days before he left office. Bush threatened
to launch air strikes against strategic objectives in Serbia proper if
the Serb regime launched a crackdown against Albanians in Kosova. The warning
by President Bush was prompted by several reasons. At the time, the war
had exploded in Bosnia and a Serb-Albanian conflict in Kosova could have
had transversal effects on that war. The Albanian Officer Corps inherited
from the past was still intact and although the weaponry possessed by the
Albanian Army was not extremely sophisticated, it was good enough and in
sufficient quantities to sustain a war in a rugged mountainous terrain
with Yugoslavia. Albania had just signed a Treaty on Mutual Defense and
Cooperation with Turkey, which meant that a Serb–Albanian War would immediately
spillover to become a Balkan War involving also Macedonia where the restive
Albanians had already proclaimed their autonomous region of Ilirida. The
warning was also repeated again by President Clinton and Albright in 1993.
The Western Europeans while expressing great admiration for Rugova, continued
to completely ignore any demands from the Albanians of Kosova.
1.1.3 The Albanian State and the Albanian Question in the Former Yugoslavia
It
was supposed that the Albanian state could become the greatest supporter
of the Albanians in Kosova. However, following Rugova, and finding relief
in the fact that the Albanian leadership in Kosova had decided to postpone
the conflict, Salih Berisha (the President of Albania from 1992 to 1997),
and his administration did all what they could do to keep the Albanians
in Kosova and Macedonia in check and themselves out of trouble. Berisha
took care to destroy systematically what remained of the Albanian state.
He fueled the ideological struggle of Communists versus the anti-Communists,
thereby alienating that part of the elite which had the know-how and the
skills to contribute to the democratic transition in Albania. He and his
administration intentionally destroyed the Albanian Officer Corps and weakened
the Albanian Army to the point that it was not even able to defend its
own depots. They oriented the whole Albanian economic system exclusively
towards services, made the state budget dependent on the credits and subsidies
granted by western donors and international financial institutions. Finally,
they transformed Albanian economy in a guinea pig for all sorts of economic
experiments. The new class struggle waged by Berisha and his cronies led
to the Upheaval of 1997. Desperate for economic success, Berisha ignored
the Albanian national question and the plight of Albanians in Kosova.
However,
in due time, Berisha learned in a hard way that financial support depended
on his stand towards Kosova and the Albanian national question. Thus, the
support of the Albanian state for the Albanians in Kosova was duly limited
to half an hour broadcast of news in the state TV, the publication of limited
propagandistic materials, and some very cheap campaign talk. It appears
that Berisha had received some kind of verbal reassurances about a positive
solution of the Albanian problem in the former Yugoslavia but nothing good
came out of it. In any case, he did very little to support their cause
other than to use the Kosova issue to enhance his standing vis a vis the
West. Thanks to his interventions, the Albanian political movement in Kosova
was not able to achieve any kind of significant political results.
1.2 THE JUSTIFICATIONS FOR THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S POLICY TOWARDS THE ALBANIANS IN THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA
The hostile position taken by the international community with regard to the independence of Kosova has been supported by several arguments. The first argument used to justify the colonization of Kosova is that if Kosova becomes independent, then, there is no way to contain the wave of secessionist movements around the world. In this context, the sacrality of borders and the sovereignty of the states are often mentioned as a justification. The second argument, advanced by policymakers and analysts alike, is that Serbs have an indisputable historic right to hold Kosova within Serbia. Third, it is insinuated that if Kosova becomes independent, then this will have regional implications: the Balkan peninsula will blow up. Let us examine why the arguments advanced to defend the present policy of the international community are fallacious and ungrounded.
1.2.1 Was Yugoslavia Dissolved or Is Kosova Just Seceding From Serbia?
With
regard to the first argument, what is not conveniently mentioned by the
analysts, is that the case of Kosova is not just another case of secession
of an unruly region but the case of Constituent Federal Unit of the Yugoslav
Federation with well-defined borders which enjoyed a high degree of sovereignty.
With the dissolution of Yugoslavia in 1991, Kosova, as a Constituent Federal
Unit of Yugoslavia, defined as such in the Constitution of the 1974, had
the right to determine whether or not it wanted to remain within the rump
Yugoslavia. The referendum held to determine the status of Kosova in 1990
showed that a surprising 90 percent of the people living in Kosova were
declared for an independent Republic of Kosova.
The
formulation in the Yugoslav legalese of the articles regarding Kosova in
the Constitution of 1974, made it abundantly clear that in the final account,
Kosova had rights recognized only to the six Republics and to the sovereign
states. Even the later Serb justifications for the violent revocation of
the status of Kosova were based precisely on the claims that the Constitution
of 1974 had created an independent unit that could not be controlled by
Serbia. Kosova was not a part of Serbia but a part of Yugoslav Federation
extremely loosely attached to the Republic of Serbia. According to the
Constitution of 1974 (until Miloshevic forcefully changed the Constitution
of Kosova in 1989 and that of Serbia in 1990), Kosova was a Constituent
Unit of the Yugoslav Federation. It had a parliament, its government, and
enjoyed the same level of sovereignty as the other six Republics. Let me
quote here one what one Serb author had to say about the status of Kosova
in the Yugoslav federation. Recently, summing up the Serb official position
against any future kind of autonomy for Kosova, Milutin Milenkovic says
that,
Due to their ignorance or because it is convenient to them, these people do not take into consideration the fact that many articles of the Constitution of 1974 gave to the Autonomous Provinces [of Kosova and Vojvodina].. more powers than to the government of Serbia itself. For example, it was not possible to amend the Constitution of the Republic of Serbia without having obtained the consent of the authorities of the Autonomous Provinces. The Representatives of the Autonomous Provinces had the right to veto all the decisions taken by the Serb government.. The Autonomous Provinces were represented without intermediaries at the federal level, independently of the Serb delegation.. They contested at the federal level decisions taken by Serbia. As semi-sovereign and privileged states, the Autonomous Provinces exercised the right to oversee the central government of the Yugoslav Federation as "Constituent Units of the Federation" that existed within the Socialist Republic of Serbia."
It is clear, even from this quotation that the argument that holds that the claim of Albanians is secessionist could not be correct. As another Serb analyst notes "Kosova had all the attributes of statehood, except the right to be separated from the Yugoslav federation." With the dissolution of the Yugoslav federation, the last legal vestige that kept Kosova tied to Serbia was gone. At the minimum, Kosova had the right to have a referendum to determine whether it wanted to remain within rump Yugoslavia or not. And when the Albanians held such a referendum, 85 of the entire population of Kosova voted for its independence. Summing up this point, Malcolm has aptly remarked, "Kosova's claim to independence is almost identical with that of Slovenia or Croatia." The Badinter Commission, an international committee of jurists found that what happened to Yugoslavia in 1991 was not "secession" but the complete dissolution of Yugoslavia into its constituent units. If Yugoslavia dissolved, and all the other "Constitutive Units" like Croatia, Bosnia, Macedonia, and Slovenia had the right to self-determination, why not Kosova that was a Constituent Federal Unit, too? The Badinter Commission refused to recognize to Kosova the status of the sovereign "Federal Unit" simply because "any such recognition would justify the claims of Serbs in Krajina." This was hardly a strong and convincing legal argument based on any loose interpretation of the Yugoslav Constitution of 1974.
1.2.2 The Historical Argument: Kosova as the Cradle of Nations
The
ab antiquo argument, which has to do with the historical past of Kosova
is used extensively by the foreign analysts to point out the importance
of Kosova for the Serb nation. It is often repeated that Kosova is the
central myth of Serb national consciousness, the cradle of their medieval
state and their church; just for these reasons, it is being argued that
it is impossible to allow Kosova to become independent from Serbia. An
inquiry into the past would reveal that Serbs occupied Kosova in the thirteenth
century and held it until 1457, that is, for less than two centuries. The
Medieval Serb Empire was a multinational empire. The Albanians were an
important part of it. Without seeking to use here historical arguments,
one cannot help but note that even in the Middle Ages, this region was
inhabited predominantly by the Albanians. Studies of the available documents,
have revealed that even in the Middle Ages, the Serbs made up the small
upper strata of the population and that Serbs were concentrated in towns
and the administrative centers. Recently, in a thorough study on this topic,
Noel Malcolm has exposed the falsity of the Serb claims. Malcolm has convincingly
argued that if any people has a right to claim Kosova as their land, this
is the Albanian people.
Besides
the surprising fact that the international community is suddenly concerned
with the historical inheritance of nations, what appears to be even more
intriguing, is that the international community does not give the same
weight to the arguments that Kosova was the cradle of the medieval Albanian
state and the cradle of the contemporary Albanian state. The medieval state
of Balshaj, "the Rulers of Albania," and many other Albanian principalities
extended here from the mid-fourteenth century to the late fifteenth century.
The Battle of Kosova that feeds the Serb myth of victimization was not
just the battle of Serbs "to save the Christendom" as we often hear. The
Battle of Kosova was fought by a Balkan coalition. Albanian feudals were
heavily involved in the Battle of Kosova and one of the triumvirs that
led the Balkan Army coalition with the Serb Prince Lazar Grebljanovic,
and King Tvarko of Bosnia, was the Albanian ruler Gjergji II Balsha. An
indication of Albanian presence in the Field of Kosova, is that only Theodori
II Muzaka, the Prince of Berat, lost more than 4000 of his Albanian fighters
in the Battle of Kosova. Fortunately, these facts are quoted from the Serb
chronicles of the time that contemporary Serb historiography has conveniently
forgotten to mention.
It
is worth noting that the first National Assembly of the Albanian people
in the modern times was held at the city of Prizren in 1878. This was followed
later by the National Assembly held in the town of Peja in 1899 and so
on. Not to mention the numerous Albanian religious and cultural monuments
in the region. It also must be said that a large number of Albanians from
Kosova were Orthodox. Slowly, they were acculturated and became even ethnically
assimilated Serbs. If the Serb Orthodox Churches and Monasteries survived
five centuries of Turkish occupation of Kosova, the explanation must be
sought in their protection by the Albanians. Especially, the Catholic Churches
of the Albanians in Kosova are among the oldest religious buildings in
the Balkan and a precious a part of their inheritance. The Serb past in
Kosova could be very well compared to the relationship between the Byzantine
Empire, the Orthodox Patriarchana of Istanbul and the Greeks of today;
to Algeria as part of the France d'outre-mer or to Spain when it was occupied
by Arabs. Neither Greece could openly lay claims to Asia Minor, nor France
could lay claim to Algeria, nor Arabs could openly claim Spain without
becoming ridiculous. Moreover, if the Serb claims on Krajina, Bosnia and
Eastern Slavonia are justified only on ethnic grounds, why should another
standard be used towards the Albanians, who make up the overwhelming majority,
in fact, over 93 percent of the entire population in Kosova? This is not
a recent phenomenon; eighty years ago, in 1912, when Serbs finally occupied
Kosova, over two-thirds of its population had declared themselves as Albanians.
While the list of arguments could go longer, it is apparent that the unconditional
acceptance of the Serb "historical right" on Kosova is unwarranted and
unjustifiable except when it serves precise geopolitical reasons.
1.2.3 The Regional Implications: Will Bosnia Dissolve?
The
most preoccupying aspect of the Kosova problem is that the analysts and
policymakers unquestionably assume that if Kosova becomes independent,
then we could have a Balkan War. Moreover, accepting an independent Kosova
they argue, this would lead and justify a future breakdown of Bosnia.
Quite
on the contrary, any further escalation of the conflict in Kosova will
have a domino effect on the Bosnian stability. On the one hand, with the
mounting tensions in Bosnia, the growing Croatian impatience with the Izetbegovic,
the unsolved problems with the Croat–Bosnian federation, and the refusal
of Bosnians to disarm their own Army, the prolongation of conflict in Kosova
might be the much-needed pretext for the Croats to get away with a blitzkrieg
a la Tudjman like the one that cleansed ethnically Krajina. The other scenario
is that while the Serbs will have their hands full and tied fighting in
Kosova, the Bosnians, the Croats, the Muslims of Sandjak and why not, the
Montenegrins, will seek to make the best they can to get back to the Serbs.
This is the way hell could break loose once again in the former Yugoslavia.
For any realist, with the creation of the Bosnian–Croat
federation, the dissolution of Bosnia became a de jure reality. As it is
now, the former Yugoslav Republic of Bosnia and Hercegovina continues to
be just another oxymoronic geopolitical concept. At the moment that the
international community will decide to cut the financial pipeline, the
political support and the incentives that sustain the "three in one and
each on its own" quasi-theological solution, Serbs, Croats, and Bosnians
will head for their separate ways.
On
the other hand, the independence of Kosova would preserve the status quo
in Bosnia. If the Bosnians, the Serbs and the Croats do not want to live
together, it will be just a matter of time before Bosnia will break up.
The international community will come to realize that the "three in one"
solution did not work very well and then other options will be weighted
and pursued. The rule of thumb is that an equilibrium will be preserved
only if all sides want to preserve it. Believing that Miloshevic will allow
the Republika Srpska of Bosnia to stay in the "three in one and each on
its own" entity in exchange for the continuation of Serb rule in Kosova
is a huge mistake. As the things are right now, and due to the imminent
danger of explosion of war there, Miloshevic has no other choice but to
allow the Republika Srpska to stay in Bosnia, at least until the fighting
spirit of the Bosnian Muslims diminishes, regardless whether or not Kosova
will become independent. Clearly, there is no justice served in denying
to an entire nation its right to be independent, as it is happening with
the Albanians in Kosova, just because of unfounded fears that Bosnia will
dissolve.
1.2.4 The Spillover Effect: Will Macedonia Get Into Trouble?
Furthermore,
it is assumed that if Kosova becomes independent this is definitely going
to destabilize fragile Macedonia. Then, it is suggested that Greece, Turkey
and Bulgaria will get involved in a Balkan War which, it is hinted, could
become a spark to ignite another World War. This argument is also based
on mistaken assumptions. The stability of Macedonia is not something which
is generated by an artificial regional order supported only by the international
community. The stability of Macedonia must be achieved primarily through
a greater cooperation between Macedonians and Albanians who live in their
own lands and who make up between 35 to 40 percent of the whole population
in Macedonia. The Albanians of Macedonia can and will continue
to support the continuous existence of Macedonia as a political entity
in the same way they supported Macedonia's bid for independence from Yugoslavia.
What
will blow up Macedonia is the expansion of the conflict in the Northern
and Eastern Kosova. There are five scenarios. The first is that however
small, the waves of refugees will destroy the fragile equilibria within
Macedonia. The second scenario is that the KLA will ask for support from
the Albanians there and transform Macedonia in a place d'arme to fight
in Serbia. The third scenario is that Serbs will fight the KLA in Macedonia
thereby causing Macedonia's de facto involvement in the war. The fourth
scenario is that the Albanians within Macedonia will rise to support their
brothers in Kosova. And the fifth scenario is the total involvement of
the Albanian state in the war which will inevitably spillover to Macedonia.
It appears that any prolongation of the conflict in Kosova, regardless
of the strenuous attempts by the international community to preserve the
Macedonia as a state, will definitely break Macedonia apart.
The
key to Macedonian stability rests with the Albanians and the Macedonians.
Albanians have their representatives in the Macedonian government and the
are supporting Macedonia's integrity. In the long run, though, Macedonia
has to become a state based on citizenship and not on nationality. The
Macedonian state must cease to identify exclusively with the Macedonians
as an ethnic group, it must cease to be the "state of the Macedonians."
Otherwise, there is not going to be any kind of peace in Macedonia no matter
how much support is given to Macedonians and Gligorov by the international
community. In the past, the Albanians in Macedonia have shown that they
could live in peace with the Macedonians. It is the Macedonian state which
should do more to convince the Albanians to support Macedonia. If the Macedonian
state is able to solve its internal matters in the proper way, that is
by becoming the state of all citizens of Macedonia, there should be no
reason for the international community to continue to live in fear that
Macedonia will dissolve at any regional whirlwind. Albanians in Macedonia
will support the integrity of the Macedonian state.
1.2.5 Summary of the Arguments
These
are the main arguments brought by the analysts and the policymakers to
justify the continuing Serb colonization of Kosova. While Albanians sought
to convince the policymakers that none of these arguments was really valid,
the international community did not want to even listen to them. Apparently
happy that the status quo was holding, the international community insisted
that from time to time, Miloshevic had to make some moves that would keep
the Albanian hopes and their peaceful non-violent movement alive.
However,
in parenthesis, I have to say that Miloshevic was very disappointing and
not cooperative. He refused to give up even on very minor points such as
to recognize the mere existence of key Albanian politicians in Kosova.
He abruptly used to dismiss the shy and peaceful Rugova by asking the then
U.S. Ambassador Zimmermann, "Whom does he represent?" Finally, by a special
electoral law, Miloshevic decided that in case Albanians make up their
mind to participate in the Serb political process, Kosova would be represented
neither according to a proportional nor to a majoritarian system but according
to a quota decided in Belgrade by Miloshevic. Miloshevic did all what he
could do to discourage Albanians from participating in the political life
of Serbia and Yugoslavia. His unwillingness to discuss even minor issues
with Albanians, and the Serb determination to treat them as slaves, left
no other choice to Albanians in Kosova but to fight.
1.3 THE DAYTON AGREEMENTS: WHY WERE THE ALBANIANS OF KOSOVA EXCLUDED?
The
status quo held until December 1995. For a few years, the authority of
Serb government in Kosova was limited to police raids or the display of
force in Prishtinë streets. Seeking to weaken, if not to divide Albanian
passive resistance, Miloshevic patiently tolerated the peaceful non-violent
and unharmful movement of Rugova. He allowed for a number of Albanians
who entered in joint ventures with Serbs to get rich, insisted in supporting
the police forces stationed in Kosova with the money or goods sequestered
by the Albanians, continued to settle some key areas with Serb refugees
from Krajina and other places, and opened the borders for hundreds of thousands
of young Albanians to leave Kosova for the US or Germany and Switzerland.
In fact, about 700.000 Albanians have migrated from Kosova to other countries.
There are about 300,000 Albanians from Kosova in USA, about 400.000 Albanians
are in Germany and about 120,000 live in Switzerland while about two million
Albanians are still living in Kosova proper.
Until
the signing of the Dayton Accords, it seemed as if the problem of Kosova
would continue to be postponed indefinitely, with the Serbs unwilling to
change the status quo and with the Albanians willing to wait for a peaceful
solution. Since throughout this period of time there were no incidents
in Kosova, it appeared that, with some twisting and some pressure from
outside, the issue could be easily solved. However, it became clear that
once some sort of stable arrangements would be in place in Bosnia, then
the regime of Miloshevic would turn towards Kosova. The Yugoslav crisis
had began in Kosova and it had to end there. After the Albanian Upheaval
of 1997, knowing that the Albanian state was definitely unable to wage
a war, the Serb regime was looking for a casus belli to resolve the Albanian
problem.
The
crucial turning point for the Serb–Albanian conflict was the signing of
the Dayton Agreements. While the Serbs retained their Republika Srpska
in Bosnia almost intact, they also vetoed any discussion on Kosova and
the international community acquiesced. First things come first; however,
the Dayton was a great disappointment for the Albanian leadership. Failing
to address the Albanian question, the international community Balkans was
planting the seeds of the failure of its strategy for the restoration of
peace in the troubled region. In this section I also examine the effect
of the Dayton Accords on the Albanians in Kosova.
1.3.1. From the International Community: A Recipe to Solve the Riddle
To
some analysts, it appeared that the Western states involved in the Balkan
had decided to formulate their regional policies by relying temporarily
on a weak Albania and a strengthened Macedonia as allies in maintaining
the fragile peace in the region without however, solving the Albanian national
question. This policy aimed at the building of temporary 'quarantine' castles
out of the existing states with the long term goal of establishing stable
democratic regimes that by the virtue of being democratic could not fight
wars easily; improving the regional economy so that the people would not
feel the relative economic deprivation vis a vis other more affluent neighboring
states. In a sort of chain reaction, the growing affluence would help the
creation of a dense network of extensive communication among the Balkan
states. The intensification of communications, the creation of an economic
society coupled with increasing economic interdependence, and the consolidation
of democratic regimes would create favorable premises to get rid not only
of the ethnofobies and chauvinistic nationalist aspirations but also of
the authoritarian and charismatic rulers that are prone to capitalize on
these sentiments. It appears but logical that, in a future economic society,
where supposedly there are no strong authoritarian centers of power, the
liberated individuals would pursue their own narrow interests that generally
end up in some form or another in the acquisition of wealth or status through
wealth but not vice versa. That is, the elite does not become rich thanks
to widespread corruption and stealing from the state treasury. Moreover,
the elite does not acquire political office and status through the unscrupulous
political manipulation of popular sentiments. An economic society is an
environment where politics is about economics and other practical interests
and not about ancient myths and daytime dreams. Consequently, and within
a reasonable period of time, the Balkans would become a peaceful peninsula
for the very first time in its long history. This network of exchanges
would hold the fabric of the future states together and it would become
quite impossible to wage war, especially wars based on nationalist ideologies
and to create states dominated by an ethnie that rules the other ethnic
groups. It is presumed that people run after their interests. What has
been overlooked here is the kind of interest various people are pursuing
in the Balkan peninsula.
Among
numerous positive aspects, the insightful policy adopted by the international
community had a quandary. None of the Balkan states would accept the existence
of yet another Albanian state. The quandary is that without a definite
solution of the Albanian national question, it is obvious that in the long
term, no political agreement and arrangement would hold. There are seven
million Albanians in the Balkans and they live in five different states;
three of them are successor states of Yugoslavia. The continuous oppression
by the resurgent nationalist regimes especially after 1981, had strengthened
the sense of national identity among the Albanians. Their already strong
sense of national identity was heightened even more when it became clear
that after 1990, both Macedonia and rump Yugoslavia were literally becoming
nation-states, that is, they were becoming states where a particular ethnie
was dominant. The ethnie which 'owned' the state and the administrative
machine were either the Serbs or the Montenegrins or the Macedonians but
not the Albanians who were still being treated as third-class citizens.
However,
there were a number of reasons why the Albanian problem could be conveniently
postponed. For one, the Albanians in the former Yugoslavia did not have
any support from the government of Tirana. Secondly, after 1992, with strong
pressures from the government of Tirana and President Berisha, the Albanians
in these states abandoned the idea of armed resistance and became committed
to a peaceful form of protest. In due time, their political movements almost
disintegrated. Thirdly, about the time the Dayton Agreement was signed,
the international analysts had formed the impression that Albanians in
the former Yugoslavia neither would fight to obtain their state nor would
they unite to solve their national question. They were waiting for the
international community to see what they believed to be uncontested truths
about their right to independence, in the case of Kosova, or to become
citizens with all the rights, in the case of Macedonia. Albanians continued
to protest peacefully and to wait for the non-violent movement to bear
some fruits and the possibility of an armed uprising in Kosova seemed highly
unlikely.
1.3.2 The Dayton Accord: Why the Albanians Were Left Outside?
Contrary to their expectations, in the Dayton
talks, the Albanian situation was not even discussed. The Prime Minister
of the Government of Kosova in exile, Bujar Bukoshi, was not allowed even
to approach the military base; his photo behind barbed wire entanglements
became a painful reminder in the Albanian press of the failure of the non-violence
policy of Rugova.
Apparently, the Western policymakers could not
find enough convincing reasons to justify the creation of yet another ethnic
Albanian state. More than the desire of the international community to
force Albanians and Serbs to live together, more than the absence of understanding,
the Albanian cause was hurt by the dismissing attitude of the West Europeans.
The international community perceived that the Albanians in Kosova were
too weak to fight for their state and too meek to succeed in obtaining
a state. Moreover, there was absolutely no pressure from the Albanian state
to solve this issue; President Berisha got a huge break in the form of
a financial package to postpone the due payments on loans and credits
received from the World Bank, the IMF and the European Bank for Reconstruction
and Development. Above all, there were no battles and no victims in Kosova
or Macedonia. The Serb state continued to insist on that Kosova was the
internal matter of Serbia and any discussion of Kosova could blow up the
Dayton Agreement. To any good pragmatist, it was a self-evident truth that
this issue could be harmlessly postponed and maybe solved, only if, and
when, the crisis would explode.
Not that there was no preoccupation with Kosova
issue. The US administration was carefully monitoring the developments
in the region and they were aware of the potentially explosive situation
there. For these reasons, the statement issued after the Dayton Agreement
by the State Department specifically addressed the Albanian problem; however,
it did very little to allay their fears that they were being literally
excluded from what was hailed as the comprehensive peace plan for the former
Yugoslavia. Kosova was mentioned only en passim and in the context of human
rights; it was linked to the lifting of "the outer wall of sanctions."
The outer wall of sanctions regards the international status of Yugoslavia,
its diplomatic recognition as a state, the upgrading of its status in the
international organizations and the release of the assets of the former
Yugoslavia.
Nothing that would satisfy the Albanians did
really happen. Even the opening of the USIA library in Prishtinë in
July 1996, (requested by the US administration a long time ago), and which
was hailed as if it were the opening of the US Embassy in Prishtinë,
did very little to tranquilize the Albanians. It was interpreted to be
more of a preventive measure from Belgrade to counteract the defying statements
coming from Berisha. Similarly the signing of 'the education agreement'
between Rugova and Miloshevic on September 1, 1996 was also interpreted
to be a preventive measure to show some progress in the Serb–Albanian relations
and release mounting tensions in Kosova. Both show that Miloshevic was
playing a shrewd 'cat and mouse' game with Rugova, his companions, and
the Albanians in Kosova.
To put it in a broader perspective, the signing
of "the education agreement," and the opening of the USIA library in Prishtinë
came at a time when Salih Berisha had just started his gambit to push Kosova
to fight. Berisha had calculated that, in order to preserve the status
quo, the international community would, first, recognize the fraudulent
parliamentary elections of May 26, 1996; second, accept the reelection
of Berisha as the "strong" President of Albania; and third, literally bribe
Berisha to remain quiet and not to stir the waters in Kosova. Therefore,
the reason why Berisha subsequently decided to take the lead on its own
and push the Kosova issue to become a gambit must not be sought in a burst
of patriotic feeling that 'his nation's interests required it,' but from
his acute awareness that Albanian question was the only card he could play
with some effectiveness to obtain money and political support for his authoritarian
regime.
1.3.3. The Effect of Exclusion From Dayton Among the Albanians
Albanians
got a library that nourished only false hopes. The opening of the library
was interpreted as an excellent move by Miloshevic that by giving away
'something,' that is, a library, achieved many goals: it tranquilized the
Albanians, reinforced the position of Rugova vis a vis the hawks on the
Albanian side, including here the supporters of Berisha, and demonstrated
sufficient interest for the Albanian cause in Belgrade and from the West.
The problem was that immediately after the Dayton Agreement, the EU countries
rushed to recognize Yugoslavia unconditionally. The Germany decided that
120,000 Albanians from Kosova, who had arrived in Germany in the last few
years and that were awaiting for their applications to received the status
of the political refugees had to return to Serbia. Moreover, the Germany
was going to pay Yugoslavia to receive these assilanten back. Italy rushed
to sign a number of economic agreements with Belgrade. The Italian bid
to become a Balkan power rested upon the uncontested assumption that Belgrade
had to be the privileged Italian partner.
Only
the US policy towards Belgrade remained strongly conditioned by the behavior
of the Miloshevic regime in Kosova. Time and again, the US administration
continued to send strong signals that Belgrade had to improve its treatment
of Albanians for "the outer wall of sanctions to be lifted." However, Albanians
were arguing that if the international community had given up and had accepted
the existence of "three states in one and each on its own" in Bosnia, what
could forbid Miloshevic from doing the same to Kosova? Albanians saw no
real international willingness to prevent the ethnic cleansing of Kosova
from Miloshevic. For a number of Albanian intellectuals, the specter of
partition and ethnic cleansing was becoming a real and eventual possibility.
Some
of the Albanian leaders in Kosova were convinced that after the Dayton
Agreement, the strategy adopted by the international community required
as an absolute prerequisite a final solution to the Albanian national question.
The only solution to uphold the Dayton Agreement required that Kosova remain
in Serbia and that the Albanian question be solved in a way that would
satisfy all the other Balkan states but the Albanians themselves. This
is why after the signing of the Dayton Agreement, some Albanians traced
its effects to their logical conclusion. When all is said and done, these
intellectuals argued, although a rump and economically destroyed Albanian
state might continue to exist on Western subsidies and as a harmless appendix
of some other 'caretaker' state, Serbia would manage to keep Kosova, either
entirely or, after some bloody ethnic cleansing, a huge part of it; Macedonia
would keep Dibra and other Albanian territories, Montenegro would keep
Ulqin, Hoti and Gruda, and the Greeks would claim, probably 'successfully'
after a process of federalization of Albania itself, Southern Albania.
In the long run, the effect of this solution–assuming a successful Serbization,
Macedonization, and Hellenization policy just as Greeks had pursued with
Albanians and the Bulgarians with Turks, Pomaks and Vlachs–the Albanians,
as a political factor in the Balkans would disappear for good. The Albanian
space has been shrinking since the Congress of Berlin in 1878; the acculturation
experiment had been quite successful in these states, especially in Greece
and so far, it appears that the process neither has been reversed nor has
it been stopped.
The
complete exclusion of the Albanians from a supposedly comprehensive peace
agreement created great suspicions among the Albanian politicians within
Albania, too. Some of them started doubting the real intentions of Western
diplomacy with regard to the Albanian question. The fate of Bosnia, which
was after all divided in three parts held together mainly by the political
will of the US, became the haunting ghost of Albanian politics. Once the
Albanian state plunged into anarchy in January 1997, many Albanians became
convinced that this was something done by the West with the single purpose
of finally destroying the Albanian state and achieving a political solution
to the Balkan quagmire. Some Albanian politicians, such as the former President
Salih Berisha, fueled the fire by insisting that there was a Western conspiracy
to destroy the Albanian nation. It came of no surprise that the idea of
an international conspiracy against Albanians gained ground steadily. In
this context, the heavy involvement of the international community in Albanian
politics during the Upheaval of 1997 was interpreted as another way of
getting the desired results of destabilizing and weakening the Albanian
state and getting rid of Berisha, who, unfortunately, was an amateur, shortsighted
and an unstable politician. During and after the Communist revolution in
Albania, rumors about plans to divide Albania between Greece and Italy,
that allegedly had the support of the US government spread like fire in
the woods. Other plans to divide Albania between Greece and Serbia were
published in Macedonian and Italian press and given great publicity in
Albania. And finally, seeking to improve the economy at any cost, the Albanian
Prime Minister, Fatos Nano, declared that his government was willing to
transform Albania in an Italian protectorate. The dissolution of the Albanian
state and the coming to power of a cosmopolitan, pro-Greek and neo-Communist
government, desperately interested only in achieving some kind of economic
success, even at the expenses of the long term national interest, became
the last straw for the Albanians in Kosova. In particular, the 90 minute
long very friendly meeting between Miloshevic and Nano in Crete (arranged
with the intermediation of Greeks), sealed their beliefs that the Albanian
government was willing to sell them very cheaply.
The
Albanians in Kosova could no longer hope for any kind of support from the
Albanian state. Their perceptions were that this was also part of a major
plan to break the unity of Albanians and to convince them that they belonged
to several distinct groups that shared the same language but who had little
in common with each-other. The goal of the international community, according
to them, was to inculcate among the Albanians in Kosova and Macedonia the
idea that they had more in common with the Serbs and the Macedonians than
with the Albanians that were living in Albania. While the Albanians in
Kosova and Macedonia became convinced that they were in fact different,
the effect of that realization among the Albanians in Kosova was not resignation
but a hardening of position manifested in a strengthening of their identity.
It was not only the insistence of the international
community that Kosova must remain within the rump Yugoslavia which raised
severe doubts about the intentions of the international community among
the Albanians. In particular, Western emphasis on the stability of Macedonia
was also questioned. How could Macedonia become stable if it continued
to oppress and treat Albanians, who make up more than 35 percent of its
population as third-class citizens? The Western emphasis on the necessity
to maintain stability in Macedonia based on international security reasons
appeared to the Albanians to be just another fake argument to hide the
plan to eliminate Albanians as a political factor in the Balkans. If anything
else, they argued, Macedonia would become a stable state only if it becomes
the state of all of its citizens and not the exclusive state of ethnic
Macedonians who in their opinion, were cleverly using the state to marginalize
the Albanians and possibly eliminate them as a significant political factor
in Macedonia.
1.3.4 Summing Up the Effect of the Dayton Accords
To
sum up the argument, it must be noted that from 1990 to the signing of
the Dayton Agreement, Albanians in Kosova, in the Albanian state, in Montenegro
and Macedonia had an unshaken belief that the international community would
finally come to realize that they deserved to have their state just as
Slovenes, Croats, Serbs and Macedonians had theirs. When the Dayton Agreement
was signed, the Albanians began doubting that the international community
was willing to solve the Albanian question. After the explosion of the
Albanian unrest, not only a major part of the Albanian elite but also a
major part of the Albanian people became convinced that the international
community did not want to solve the Albanian question in a positive way.
In fact, Albanians became convinced that the international community had
decided that they should be sacrificed for the sake of "regional peace
and stability."
While
appearances were preserved, the authority of people that advocated unconditional
collaboration with the international institutions and especially of those
intellectuals that dared call the behavior of the international community
positive, eroded fastly. The Albanians felt betrayed from their Ghandian
non-violent elite and the indifference of the international community.
In face of the unwillingness of the Serb regime to make any slight meaningful
concessions, their position hardened and it appeared that the only viable
option left to them to achieve any meaningful results was to fight. Although
the appearances were preserved, it was clear that the strategy of the international
community regarding Albanians, granted that in the Planning Bureaus of
the Foreign Ministries there was a coherent, well-thought and co-ordinated
plan of action for the next decade, had utterly failed. The strategy of
the international community was based on gross misperceptions regarding
the Serb cooperation, the Albanian expectations, their willingness to fight
for Kosova, their willingness to support the integrity of Macedonia and
their determination to become independent from Serbia.
2. CAN A POWDER KEG EXPLODE UNTIL THE NOISE IS HEARD?
To put it in a single phrase, the fundamental mistaken assumption of the policy pursued by the international community was that although it widely assumed that Kosova was a powder keg, none did not really believe that Kosova could possibly explode and that Albanians would fight. The analysts had concluded that Yugoslav Army was too strong, the Albanians had no guns, they were not united and, miraculously enough, the structuralist literary critic, Ibrahim Rugova, had managed to convert the Albanians, a people known for their excellent military traditions, in the Ghandian non-violence and a blissful belief in the benevolence of the West to their cause. Besides that, the Albanian state was a very weak state, its leadership was composed of mediocre amateur politicians of dubious legitimacy, desperately searching for the economic success and that could make no sense of the situation and the national interest of their own state. Even today, it is believed, and rightly so, that the current Albanian government is totally dependent on the credits, the loans and the benevolence of the West. Once the financial pipeline is closed, some analysts thought that the Albanians would starve and their government would get on its knees. The Albanians within Albania appeared to be absorbed on the problems of how to make a day to day living and the Kosova problem was not on their priority list. These were some strong reassurances that Albanians in former Yugoslavia were practically doomed to remain an integral part of Serbia and Macedonia. It seemed as if any international attempt to help Albanians in Kosova and Macedonia would fail anyway.
2.1 The Emergence of the Kosova Liberation Army
Yet,
contrary to these expectations and causing great uneasiness among the international
analysts and watchers, in August 1997, in Kosova emerged the KLA, a conspiratorial
organization that, according to some reports, had been active since 1983.
The KLA political program was contained in a single phrase: "the liberation
of all Albanian territories from the Slav occupation." It appeared that
its fate would not be different from the Irish IRA with which it was routinely
being compared in the international press. Before I examine its role in
the political developments in Kosova, at the risk of repeating what I have
already said, I wish to point out that there were four related processes
that made its emergence possible. The first process is related to the inability
of Rugova to get anything done. The Albanians in Kosova were getting tired,
there were no results and the non-violence path was leading to nowhere.
The international community pressured Rugova to talk to Miloshevic and
Rugova was unable even to disagree on minor points. In this context, some
cautious steps that were undertaken to build some confidence in the possible
future Serb-Albanian dialogue served only to highlight the impossibility
of any kind of agreement. For example, an agreement to allow education
in the Albanian language signed by the Albanian and Serb representatives
was not implemented mainly due to the Serb obstructionism. Albanians interpreted
this as a clear sign of what was to be expected in the future. Serbs would
sign any paper make any agreement and then continue to behave as if nothing
had happened.
Secondly,
the repression of Albanians in Macedonia, especially the brutality of the
Macedonian police that killed several Albanians, wounded dozens of others
and arrested over 400 peaceful demonstrators on July 12, 1997, and the
Western acquiescence to that brutality had strengthened the Albanian suspicions
that strong talk by the international community was really cheap. They
believed that all what the international community really wanted was to
avoid another Bosnia and to preserve the status quo at any price. Thirdly,
as noted before, the destruction of the Albanian state was perceived by
them to be part of a Western plan to eliminate the only outside support
the Albanians in Kosova had. There was created an impression that they
were left alone and that there were no reasons why they should expect anything
from Albania. Fourthly, the Serb state became somewhat more active and
after a long visit by Miloshevic in Kosova, it appeared clearly that for
the Serb regime the time to solve the problem of Kosova had finally come.
For a host of reasons, especially for the complicated relationship between
Serbia and Montenegro, Miloshevic had to solve the Kosova issue as fast
as he could.
2.2 Examining the Options for Kosova: Independence,
Partition, or Colony?
We
already have presented in a nutshell the only option considered by the
international community and the think tanks in the various European capitals.
That option excluded the independence for Kosova and insisted that the
panacea was the future democratization of Serbia. They had ruled out any
other option that could lead to the independence of Kosova from Serbia.
The Europeans were crystal clear that, in this matter, they supported Serbia
unconditionally. The US view was that Kosova should remain in a Yugoslav
federation with broad autonomy. Even the United States, perceived by the
Albanians to be their only supporter within the Contact Group and the international
community's organisms dealing with the Balkan, had ruled out the independence
for Kosova.
2.2.1 The Albanian Proposals
The Kosova issue had been at the center of attention of the Serb and Albanian analysts throughout the conflict in Bosnia. Different plans to solve the Kosova knot were submitted and discussed by the Serb and the Albanian intellectuals. Among the Albanian intellectuals, Rexhep Qosja consistently had argued that Kosova must become a part of a unitary Albanian state. On the other hand, Adem Demaçi fancied that Kosova should become part of "a confederation of three, secular and sovereign states" that he named Balkania. Other intellectuals were willing to accept Kosova as part of Yugoslavia, albeit in a more decorous and elevated status. So did some former influential Titoist officials like Mahmut Bakalli, the Chairman of the Yugoslav Communist League for Kosova in the 70's. As far as Rugova and his foreign policy adviser, Fehmi Agani, they were content to settle for the constitutional status of Kosova before 1989. However, they insisted that the final goal was independence of Kosova with a transitional period of two years under supervision from the international institutions.
2.2.2 The Serb Options: All Albanians Should be Sent to the Albanian State
Besides the view that Kosova had to remain part
a centralized unitary Serb state favored by Vojislav Seselj, the most favored
plan by the Serb side was the partition of Kosova. Following the initial
plan of the nationalist writer Dobrica Qosic, the first President of rump
Yugoslavia, the Serb academician Aleksandar Despic argued in June 1996
that the most likely solution was the partition of Kosova in two distinctive
parts. According to this plan, the Serbs would keep Deçan and some
other religious places, (an area that currently is being cleansed ethnically)
including here the not-so-religious Mitrovica, a region ranked second in
the world for its chromium reserves. Albanians would keep the rest of the
territory including here Prishtina, an administrative city of about 600,000
inhabitants. Then, the status of the two parts of Kosova would be discussed
in agreement with Serb and Albanian 'motherlands.'
On the other hand, the Serb government, has insisted
that it had to keep Kosova intact. The preparations were made with regard
to two variants. With regard to the Qosic–Despic variant, the Serb government
had insisted on the redrawing of the borders of the Kosova municipalities
so that in case of partition in the Serb and the Albanian part within the
Yugoslavia, Serbs would be in majority the largest number of municipalities
possible; most of these municipalities would be in Northern part of Kosova.
This would be an imitation of Dayton Bosnia, that is, Kosova would become
a Republic with two distinctive parts with close links to "mother countries."
If that ever happened, Serbs were sure that Serbia would take the lion's
share and the future 'Republic' that would remain within Yugoslavia, would
be politically paralyzed.
In the second variant, in case Serbia would lose
the war with the Albanians, if the Albanians would ever dare fight, (and
I have to note that in 1996, that appeared a remote possibility) then the
goal of the Serb government was to cleanse at least the Western and the
Northern parts of Kosova displacing and expelling between one million to
one million and a half Albanians from Kosova by sending them to Albania.
After the cleansing of these parts was achieved, then the status of Kosova
could be discussed with the Albanians that would remain in Serb Kosova
while the remnants of Southern Kosova, in the lower percentages of its
actual territory would be attached to the Albanian state.
2.2.3. The Fight to the End Option
The
peaceful and non-violent movement of Rugova had brought no results whatsoever
to the Albanian cause. The regime of Miloshevic was not willing to give
up anything, they were unwilling even to talk to the Albanians. There was
but one option left to the Albanians who were seeking a swift solution
and that was war. In a string of attacks on Serb police and Albanian collaborators
of Serbia, the KLA drew international attention to the question of Kosova.
The response of Rugova and the Democratic League of Kosova, was to label
the KLA as terrorists or to insinuate that it was not clear for whom the
KLA was working. The Albanian leadership in Prishtinë, continued to
ignore the KLA and to pursue the Ghandian non-violent path to the ridiculous
point of calling the KLA "terrorists." Rugova and the party he leads, were
supported by a significant part of the Albanian elite of Kosova. Although
the non-violence was leading to nowhere, the international community supported
and encouraged it while continued feverishly to push Rugova to talk to
the Serbs who in turn refused to even talk about the talks forcing the
dialogue to enter in a cul de sac.
The
response of the KLA was to increase the number of attacks and their intensity.
In a few months, the press was openly speaking about free zones controlled
by the KLA in the Drenica region. No Serb police would dare go in these
areas allegedly controlled by the KLA and its units. The string of successful
attacks by the KLA, gave new hope to the Albanian population of Kosova
that finally their situation might be resolved. It also became a major
problem for the 'constructive' dialogue between Rugova and Miloshevic,
who consistently refused to even consider meeting Rugova as the representative
of Albanians. In turn, KLA attacks served as a pretext for the Serb regime
to start solving the Albanian question. The conditions appeared to be quite
favorable; the Albanian government, which was not able to assert its authority
on the whole territory of Albania, had given assurances in Crete that it
would accept any kind of solution. The Albanian Prime Minister Fatos Nano
had explicitly stated that the Albanian government considered Kosova to
be an internal matter of Yugoslavia. On the other hand, Rugova, who was
insisting on a peaceful solution, was losing credibility. The whole matter
was becoming complicated thanks to a collateral effect of the Upheaval
of 1997 in Albania. Over 750,000 light automatic and semi-automatic weapons
fell at the hands of the population within Albania. Small amounts were
being transferred to Kosova and the KLA was expanding rapidly, claiming
to have liberated parts of the Drenica region by February 1998.
2.3 The Serb Reaction to the Emergence of the KLA
The
Serb impatience grew during the months of January and February 1998, when
the intensity of KLA attacks increased and it became obvious that the status
quo was finally going to change. The Serb regime was claiming that there
were areas where no policemen would dare go and that the KLA was becoming
"a threatening force." Early in January 1998, the Third Corps of the Yugoslav
Army stationed in Nish began moving troops and equipment to Kosova. So
did the Second Corps dislocated in Leskovac. The Army Corps dislocated
in Prishtinë was put on a state of alert. There were rumors about
a considerable number of recruits and conscripts from Vojvodina and other
parts of Serbia as well as paramilitary troops being prepared to be deployed
in Kosova. While analysts were convinced that the Serb regime was about
to conduct a military operation aimed at the pacification of Kosova, they
were not sure about the extent of the operation; whether it would be just
an expeditionary force whose only goal would be to restore the rule of
Serbia on the Drenica region where the KLA units were active, or whether
it would be the beginning of the final solution of the Kosova problem from
a position of force.
The
international community was getting very uneasy about the preparations
by the Serb regime to punish the Albanian "separatists" and the KLA. Yet,
probably assuming that a small scale operation would be successful, the
international community implicitly gave the green light to a Serb expeditionary
force whose operations zone would be limited in a few villages of Drenica,
actually within the small county of Skënderaj. On February 25 1998,
the Ambassador Gelbard in a press conference in Prishtinë called the
KLA "terrorists." Miloshevic took it literally and a few days later, the
Special Forces of the Yugoslav Army (VJ) and the Serb police, supported
by helicopter gunships, and artillery surrounded the villages of Qirez,
Prekaz, and Llaushë of the Drenica region. They razed to the ground
entire quartiers of these villages. The brutality of the Serb attack aimed
to struck terror in the hearts of the Albanians in Kosova; they literally
slaughtered 80 people, most of them women and children, 13 members of the
Ahmeti family and 47 relatives of Adem Jashari, the person who, according
to the Serb police, was one of the KLA leaders in the Drenica region. The
killing of unarmed civilians, mostly women and children, and the brutality
of the actions of Serb police caused an international uproar. The Serb
regime had intended to make the punishment of Qirez, Prekaz, and Llaushë
an example for the rest of the Albanians in Kosova. Instead it fumbled
badly in public relations. The international community reacted very quickly,
at least verbally, and for a moment it seemed that the status quo would
be restored quickly.
The
massacres of Drenica brought Kosova at the attention of the international
media and the policymakers. The international media disputed the existence
of the KLA and many questioned the extent of its organization and its fighting
capability. Insinuations were duly made that in fact, the KLA was an organization
created by Serb secret service of Miloshevic to give him the much needed
casus belli to quash the unarmed Albanians in Kosova, that many of its
leaders were figures of a dubious past linked to Marxist-Leninists, that
Iranians Chechens and Afghans were in fact those that were fighting in
Kosova, to the argument that KLA were just groups of frustrated peasants
and youth that were seeking to ignite the war against the Serbs in Kosova.
Regardless of these guesses, the massacre of Drenica prompted many Albanian
villages to be organized into militias whose main goal was the self-defense
of their villages and homes. Albanian immigrants in Western Europe and
the United States started to return home and the money collected by the
Albanian Diaspora began to flow to the KLA. Within three weeks the situation
in Kosova was radicalized. Independently of who had an interest to start
the Serb-Albanian War in Kosova, the fact of the matter was that the War
had already started. Albanians were totally unprepared. They not the backing
of the Albanians state. They were unarmed and divided. There was no way
for the Belgrade regime not to profit from the extreme weakness of the
Albanian side.
2.4 The Serb Strategy in Kosova
Whatever the secret war plans of Belgrade were, the strategy followed by the Yugoslav Army (VJ) and the Serb police was unraveling some very disturbing intentions. The Serbs did not want to have another Bosnia in their hands. This time around, after they created a cordon sanitaire between Albania and Kosova, and especially after having sealed the Western and Southwestern parts of Kosova, they followed a strategy that since then it was repeated in one village after another with an extraordinary regularity. The first step is to surround any given village by massive numbers of the Serb Army and police troops. Once the Albanian women and children leave to go hiding in the mountains and the hills, then the Serb Army shells the houses until they are razed to the ground. If the people who are defending their homes are caught, they are summarily executed. Once there are no houses and no people left in the village army units leave for another village. In due time, it appears that the same scheme would be repeated in the rest of the villages of Kosova and the Plain of Dukagjini. When the winter will come, the males, that now are either fighting to defend their villages or that are hiding in the mountains, would not be able to resist longer so they too would follow their families in Albania. This process of ethnic cleansing does not repeat the mistakes of Bosnia and it does not cause a public relations blunder. Until the noise is heard, no powder keg has really exploded. It also is a very efficient tactic; so far over 200,000 people have become refugees within Kosova and over 40,000 refugees have already arrived in Northern Albania with little noise in the international media.
3. HAS THE RUBICON FINALLY BEEN CROSSED?
3.1 The Explosion of the Serb–Albanian War
While
there was much talk about the Serb attack in Drenica and the problem of
Kosova became the main topic of discussion in the Contact Group, the international
community chose to do very little. On the other hand, after fortifying
some key positions, the Serb Army interrupted operations for a few days
because Belgrade wanted to let the international wave of protests quiet
down. In response to the Contact Group meeting of March 24, 1998, Belgrade
also announced that it was going to hold a referendum on whether or not,
the international mediators should be allowed to participate as a third
party in the talks between Serbs and Albanians. In several meetings of
the Contact Group, Kosova was among the main topics discussed. The international
community reprimanded Miloshevic for his actions, slapped with some final
ultimatums, set some tough conditions, reimposed sanctions and then lifted
them again. It fell short of committing troops for Kosova or upholding
the Christmas warning given by President Bush and then repeated by President
Clinton. There were concerns expressed by the international community.
Strong as they were, the concerns were not policies, and therefore, they
did no good to stop the killing. Although several measures were proposed
and duly approved, they seemed more smoke than fire. None of the measures
adopted by the Contact Group intended to stop Miloshevic and it was clear
that these measures could not have the slightest effect on the policy of
Belgrade towards Kosova. In essence, except for some cosmetic remedies
or collateral actions, the policies adopted by the Contact Group paradoxically
favored Miloshevic. Measures that aimed at the containment of the conflict
and the avoidance of the spillover of the conflict in Albania and Macedonia,
as well as the measures that aimed at limiting the fighting capability
of the KLA by forcing the Albanian government to control the black market
of lightweapons that were transferred from Albania to Kosova, were exactly
what Miloshevic would have wanted. Without support from the Albanians outside
Kosova and without weapons and ammunition, the KLA would remain isolated
and at some point it would be defeated by the superior Yugoslav Army.
It
is obvious that the strategy pursued by the international community even
after the explosion of the Serb-Albanian War in Kosova did not substantially
change. What changed was the reality on the ground. In about a month, the
KLA swelled to 80,000 soldiers and its area of operations expanded rapidly.
Some units of the Serb Army fought well but on the whole, the Serb Army
was not able to defeat the poorly armed Albanian peasants defending their
homes. It has become abundantly clear that unless Miloshevic razes to the
ground every house and village of Kosova, unless he kills most of the Albanians
living there, the Serb rule is not going to be restored in Kosova. The
Serb regime has indicated that indeed, this is its goal. Kosova must remain
within Serbia, regardless of the price in human lives and material destruction.
The
strange beliefs of the international community that the Albanians would
give up and recognize the Serb rule, that Rugova controlled Kosova and
that he could cut a deal with Serbs, and that Albanians in Albania would
not help Albanians in Kosova, were manifested in the insistence of the
governmental representatives of the Contact Group that, be it as it may
and whatever happens, Kosova had to remain part of Serbia. The Albanian
peasants, who admittedly are neither military nor political experts, could
have believed that, indeed, staying in Serbia might be the best solution
for them to prosper and live in peace. However, faced with the terror,
the shellings, the atrocious killings, the burning alive of their relatives,
and threatened with death by the Serb Army, Serb police and the infamous
paramilitary troops, the Albanian peasants started to fight for their lives.
From that point on, it was clear that Kosova issue would be solved only
in the battlefield and that the Serb–Albanian war had started. Even after
the reality in the ground changed so radically, the international community's
strategy and its view of the Albanian issue did not change.
3.2 Problems with International Community's Strategy
To elaborate on what I just said, it is obvious that there are a number of problems with the strategy adopted by the international community. The first problem is whether or not the containment strategy will be able to keep Albania out of war, if the war is prolonged. The second problem is whether or not, if the conflict is expanded, the Albanians in Macedonia could stay out of the conflict. The third problem is whether or not any large scale ethnic cleansing by Miloshevic could be kept out of the attention of the public opinion and media. The fourth problem is whether there is any political force, or a politician that could convince the KLA to get to the negotiating table with the Serbs. The sixth problem is related to the domestic political situation of Serbia and the ability of any Serb politician to solve the Kosova problem in an way that would be acceptable to the Albanians and the Serbs. The seventh problem is whether or not the international community has any kind influence left on either side. And finally, whether or not Bosnia will be the next domino to fall.
3.2.1 Why Albania Cannot Stay Out of the Conflict
It
continues to be imperative for the containment policy to succeed that the
Albanian state should not get involved in the War. For this reason, strong
economic incentives, diplomatic pressure and political support for the
government of Tirana, have brought some desired results. Nano was inclined
to follow the Greek advice which was to stay completely out of the conflict.
After a visit by the Assistant Secretary of State Strobe Talbot, the Albanian
government and opposition took a more supportive stance towards Albanians
in Kosova. They have complied in a very exemplary way with the requests
of the international community. To assure the international community about
its good will, the Albanian government has even requested the deployment
of 7,000 to 20,000 NATO soldiers to control the Albanian-Yugoslav border,
and especially the Albanian Army's huge arsenals in the Northern part of
Albania. In the opinion of the Albanian politicians, if NATO troops would
take over the defense of these depots, the KLA cannot take any kind of
armaments other than by fighting with the NATO troops. It follows that
neither arms nor the people would be able to flow to Kosova. The government
of Tirana several times has confiscated weapons bought in the black market
and has arrested numerous activists from Kosova. Moreover, it has called
upon the Albanians in Kosova to quit the fight. The Prime Minister Nano
even has hinted that he could meet with Serb officials to discuss Kosova.
As
far as the Albanian opposition is concerned, the former President Berisha,
besides using some strong rhetoric, has done absolutely nothing to support
the Albanians in Kosova. He is desperately seeking to regain the lost favor
of the US and the international community. Berisha is using the issue of
Kosova to improve his image and position in the Albanian political configuration.
It is not unlikely that once Northern Albania shifts to the side that supports
the KLA, Berisha might seek to draw some political advantages out of it
and to behave as a national hero. For the moment, though, he is behaving
politically correct and doing nothing significant to support the KLA.
Thanks
to skillful diplomatic maneuvering and strong economic incentives offered
to the current government of the Albanian state, it appears that, for now,
the international community has managed to limit the spillover of the conflict
to the neighboring Albanian state. The strategy adopted by the international
community so far has been successful. However, it is far from clear that
Albania can stay out of the conflict for too long. The Albanian government,
composed of neo-communists, has come to power thanks to the Communist revolution
of the 1997 that overthrew the regime of Berisha, another former hard-core
communist turned authoritarian. The current government does not enjoy any
kind of legitimacy in key areas such as Northern Albania. With 500,000
to 750,000 refugees expected to come from Kosova, it is impossible that
Northern Albania could stay out of the conflict. For one, many of the Albanians
coming from Kosova have parts of their families and relatives in Albania.
Although there were not much communication between them during the years
of Communist dictatorship, the current situation has reinforced the family
ties. Secondly, even if the Northerners do not get into the conflict themselves,
their region will be transformed into a place d'arme for Albanians from
Kosova and the KLA. The Albanian government, that barely controls the main
towns of Albania, cannot muster enough police forces to control these areas
and it cannot stop these processes. If the Albanian government cannot do
that, then it is the Serb side which will seek to cleanse the Northern
Albania from the KLA, causing a de facto involvement of the Albanian state
in the war, and extending the front-line to include Montenegro and the
Second Yugoslav Army with its headquarters in Podgorica. It is also a possible
option that in response to this, the KLA will find it necessary to expand
its operations in Albania changing its name to Albanian Liberation Army
and transforming Albania itself in an operative zone. It is almost a surety
that with little popular support, the current government will loose complete
control of the key areas of the country. The decomposition of the Albanian
state becomes an eventual possibility and then there has to be seen what
kind of actions will be undertaken by Greece, who is particularly interested
in this process, and Turkey.
The immediate effect, though, will be that the
Albanian population will get involved in war and Northern Albania will
become an area dominated exclusively by the KLA. Any further exacerbation
of the conflict in Kosova will have as an inevitable consequence the involvement
of Albania in the war. The major problem of the strategy adopted by the
international community is that unless Kosova issue is solved quickly,
Albania is bound to go to war.
3.2.2 Why Albanians in Macedonia Could Go to War
The
second major problem is whether or not, the international community will
be able to keep Macedonia out of the conflict. Refugees from Kosova that
are headed in Macedonia, as well as the Albanians there that resent the
Macedonian rule, could make the life for the Skopje regime very difficult.
Macedonia does not have an well-equipped and well-trained army and it would
be extremely difficult for them to contain the restive Albanian population
which is sandwiched between Macedonia and Albania in a very compact rugged
mountainous region. The perception that they are fighting against all the
other Balkan states might be a powerful incentive for the Albanians in
Macedonia to start fighting along their fellow Albanians from Kosova. Even
in this scenario, the possibility that the Albanians in Northeastern Albania,
especially in the regions of Mat, Dibër and Kukës will be involved
in the fight is greatly increased.
However, what could definitely blow Macedonia
away is the expansion of conflict in Eastern Kosova. The flow of the refugees
would be directed towards Dibër, Tetovë, Gostivar, and Strugë
destroying the fragile equilibria there. The presence of the NATO troops
will not stop the fighting. The interested sides know that with a few bombs
and casualties, NATO troops will take good care not to get involved in
the clashes. The Serbs will take advantage of the situation and will seek
to control Northern Macedonia and raid Albanian villages there. That would
by the casus belli we are told Greeks, Bulgarians, Turks, Russians and
the rest are eagerly expecting to start the Seventh Balkan War. I will
refer the reader to the section 1.2.4 where I have briefly sketched the
five possible scenarios that will lead to the destabilization of Macedonia.
3.2.3 Keeping Kosova Out of the Screen
Besides
the containment of the Serb-Albanian War in Western Kosova, another great
achievement of the strategy adopted by the international community is that
differently from the War in Bosnia, it did manage to get the Serb-Albanian
War out of the focus of the media and the international press very quickly.
As a result, to the great convenience of the Serb side, for the international
community, the Serb-Albanian War has became a secret and local guerrilla
war. The visit of Rugova to Belgrade on May 15, 1998, when he went to talk
to Miloshevic, as a Yugoslav citizen, without any international intermediaries
and without making the withdrawal of the Serb army and security forces
part of the package, took Kosova out of the focus of the press and the
media. It gave to Belgrade valuable time and justifications for the ethnic
cleansing that ensued later. It also took Rugova out of the political scene.
The recent visit by Rugova to Washington, cannot remedy for his mistake
to go Belgrade, just as any other loyal citizen of Serbia. After his visit
to Belgrade, it is regrettable to note but Rugova has lost his influence.
Right now, Rugova is a considered a puppet figure of the international
community that does not enjoy any kind of respect among the Albanians in
Kosova.
The silence from Albania itself has helped a
lot. We see many refugees but no killings, no destruction, and no violence.
Serbs have closed the Western Kosova hermetically. There are no news coming
from that area. Although only in the town of Junik 5,500 houses were razed
to the ground and many women and children were buried alive, there is little
mentioning of facts like this in the international media. The impression
that Albanians and Serbs are talking is mistaken but sufficient to keep
the press away from the Albanian problem. Serbs are being prepared for
a huge operation and the expansion of the front-line, the growing number
of people killed, and the streams of refugees could remind many people
of Rwanda and Bosnia and increase the public support, though not the governmental
support, for the plight of the Albanians in Kosova.
3.2.4 The Albanian Mystery: Peasants, KLA and no Politicians
For all the brutality of the Serb Army, and Police,
Miloshevic could not realize his goal of cleansing a large part of Kosova
in a brief time, or initiating a wave of refugees that would have left
Kosova for Albania. For all the might of the Yugoslav Army, it took Miloshevic
three months to occupy some villages in the municipality of Deçan.
He will soon have to involve into the fighting in Kosova, units from the
First Army and the Second Army of VJ. In the next months, in the Serb view,
the military crackdown will be decisive to determine whether or not the
integrity of Kosova as it is, will be preserved.
However,
the Albanian resistance has grown to about 80,000 fighters (and less than
50 percent of the Kosova territory is involved in the fighting). It is
growing day by day and the front-line has expanded. KLA controls 40 percent
of the territory of Kosova. It has become clear that Miloshevic has lost
Kosova definitely unless he decides to keep it as a colony. Any future
brutal crackdown in the Eastern part of Kosova, not only would have the
effect of destabilizing Macedonia as I have already noted, it would have
the effect of doubling, if not of quadrupling, the number of fighters and
extending the front-line to include all of Kosova, Northern Albania, and
Macedonia. >From the proclamations of the KLA it appears that their objective
is set clearly and unequivocally. There is no realistic possibility that
Kosova will continue to remain part of Serbia with the acquiescence of
the Albanians, independently whether Serbia will become democratic or totalitarian,
unless Kosova continues to be held occupied as a colony. Moreover, from
the KLA point of view, it does not matter any longer whether or not Miloshevic
will cooperate with the international community. He already has made it
clear that he does not want to do that. It is precisely for that reason,
that Miloshevic sought and managed to radicalize the situation in Kosova.
Miloshevic was unwilling to reach a compromise
when it was the right time and when the Albanian elite in Kosova was willing
to reach a compromise. By now, it is a whole new ball game. The KLA and
the Albanian fighters, most of them armed peasants who have lost everything
they had, will not accept to talk with Serbs. There is no real political
leadership on the Albanian side that has enough authority to make even
any tentative attempts to force some kind of Serb–Albanian settlement that
could keep Kosova within Yugoslavia. All Albanian politicians in Prishtinë,
including here Qosja and Demaçi, know fully well that there is no
outside power that could convince the Albanian peasants to give up weapons
and go back to paying taxes to Serbia unless they are defeated and killed
in the battle. So far, the Serb Army has not been able to defeat them in
the battle. The ranks of the KLA are growing rapidly and by the end of
the summer one can expect it to have between 150,000 to 200,000 fighters
ready for combat. The KLA controls over 40 percent of the territory and
the movement is spreading in some towns, too. It does not appear likely
that the KLA will look for some politicians in Prishtina to represent and
to lead them in the negotiating table. There is intense activity in the
Albanian political circles in Prishtinë to create some support for
young Albanian politicians who might 'tame' the KLA and then sit in the
negotiating table for the KLA. However, it is highly unlikely, that the
KLA leadership would relinquish the political leadership of the Army. They
will not accept to discuss the status of Kosova which means that the international
community will be faced with the worst Balkan situation ever. Macedonia
will fall, Bosnia will fall and all parties will pursue their interest.
To start any negotiations with KLA, it is absolutely necessary to accept
the independence of Kosova as a possible option, and probably, as the only
viable option to save the region.
3.2.5 What Is Happening to the Serbs?
The strategy adopted by the international community is based on other mistaken assumptions regarding Serbia, its people, and its political leadership. First, it is often said that Miloshevic is a capricious and greedy authoritarian politician that is pursuing exclusively his own self-interest and that can flip-flop policies in an eye-beat. While there is nothing wrong with this assertion, what is quite often forgotten to be said is that Miloshevic has a clear goal in mind that, in the end, is the creation of a hegemonic Serbia. Only the hope of creating the "Greater Serbia" has kept the Serbs attached to him through these years. The economic sanctions, tough as they were, did nothing to slow down Miloshevic. It is almost certain that sanctions will not do no good, except to give a face lift to the international community.
3.2.5.1 Can Miloshevic Bring Peace to Kosova?
It is not the goal of this paper to focus on Miloshevic per se; however, there is nothing to suggest that he has ever abandoned the goal of creating the "Greater Serbia" nor that he could abandon it in the future, especially with regard to Kosova. Arguments, such as, Miloshevic is the only person who could give to Kosova its independence, are true. However, scholars and analysts forget that this would be the end of Miloshevic's political life. It follows from here that the international community should abandon this stance of wait-and-see what Miloshevic will do. The reconfirmation of traditional Serbo–Russian alliance and the strong support he continues to get from Greece and the European Union, show that under the circumstances, Miloshevic is playing his game very well. If the matters are left in the hands of Miloshevic, it is absolutely sure that he will not cooperate and that he will not give up anything except by force. Miloshevic has not gone on the record as a person that has given up under pressure from the international community.
3.2.5.2 The Serb Opposition: Seeking Democracy Serb Style
Another mistaken assumption is to nourish hopes that the Serb politicians are divided on the issue of Kosova and some of them would agree to some kind of solution imposed by the international community. The role of the presumed 'democratic' Serb opposition is greatly exaggerated. None of the leaders of the Serb opposition parties, neither Vuk Drashkovic, nor Vesna Pesic, Gjingjic nor Vojislav Seselj, have ever doubted Miloshevic's policy towards Kosova. If anything else, they are even more hard-liners than he is. The role of sanctions on the Serb military machine is highly exaggerated. Miloshevic does not need much military equipment to fight in Kosova. He already has signed a two billion dollars deal with Russia during December of 1997 and he already has received huge shipments of military material from Russia. However, deeds speak louder than the words; in this sense, it should come of no surprise if in the coming months we find all the Serb parties united in a government of National Serb Unity.
3.2.5.2. Why the Serbs Refuse to Fight
The most astonishing fact, apparently ignored by the international community and one that throws doubts on the slogan of "Kosova as the central myth of Serb consciousness and the Serb nation" is that a considerable number of Serbs apparently do not want to fight in Kosova. During the Titoist times, for a lot of Serbs, Kosova belonged in another world that they heard about in the news. The fighting in Kosova has revealed that the Serbs do not appear to be as emotionally attached to Kosova as it is often being described. Otherwise, there would not be desertions and fighting in the Serb Army barracks. The ratio of Serbs to Albanians in Kosova has already fallen to one to fifteen. There are less than 120,000 Serbs left in Kosova. Their morale is pretty low and there are numerous reports of desertion from the Serb military. The more recent case of over 100 Belgrade policemen who refused to go to fight in Kosova is significant. The support for the war in Kosova is strong among the Serb colonists but not among people from Serbia proper or people from Montenegro.
3.2.6 Mistaken Assumptions, Misperceptions, or Aberration From the Norm
The strategy of the international community rests
upon a mistaken assumption generated by the dominant institutionalist and
modernization schools of nationalism which assume that the nationalist
identity is a product of the anomie generated by modernization and skillfully
manipulated by elites, that in another rational choice variant, are followed
by rational individuals that calculate their gains and losses every fifteen
minutes or so. The analysts and planners forget that the Balkans is a land
where some people live between dreams and reality. It must be said that
in the Balkans, in most cases, the people are not able to distinguish where
reality begins and where the dreams end. This mystical orthodox state of
mind, which is an aberration from the norm, is incomprehensible to the
rational foreign Western analysts who, tend to consider it as just another
temporary lapsus to be remedied by democracy and the free market. If the
analysts and policymakers decide to wait for the Serbs, the Macedonians,
the Albanians, the Bosnians, the Croats, and the Montenegrins to change
their mind within the next year or so, and to see what great mistakes they
are committing, then we also will have another situation like Bosnia. The
exception to Bosnia will be that Albanians are a tougher nut to crack and
they will create many more problems to the Serbs.
Moreover,
the assumption that who controls the elites he controls the game, in this
context, it is not entirely correct, especially in the Albanian context.
While the argument advanced above could be used to support this claim,
it also must be remembered that in these societies, the social organization
is based on the Church, in the case of Serbs and on the extended family,
in the case of Albanians. The individual, whoever, he is, cannot be charismatic
in the Weberian sense. Therefore, the elite does not have the same weight
as it does in other societies. The Albanian peasant uprising in Kosova
has made it impossible for the Albanian elite to do other than attempt
to control or channel the burst of popular sentiments. This means that
first, they have to follow their people in order to be able to somehow
lead them in the future. This takes time to be accomplished and no Albanian
leader in Kosova has the credentials to convince the Albanian peasants
to give up their weapons. Only the KLA has the power to do that but I find
no convincing reasons why they should relinquish the political leadership
of the Albanians in Kosova.
3.2.7 The International Community Cannot Be Trusted
As
I have noted, after three months of the Serb-Albanian War, under constant
pressure by the U.S., the international community has done some very good
things: as integral parts of the carrot and stick policy there were some
minor, yet, substantial, achievements. Such substantial achievements were
the imposition of sanctions on the former Yugoslavia or the display of
strength through joint Partnership for Peace and NATO military maneuvers
in the region or the postponing of the membership of Yugoslavia in the
IMF for another six months. Furthermore, no planes of the Yugoslav National
Airline (JAT) will be allowed to land in certain Western airports. However,
the economic sanctions do not stop the violence. In spite of all these
efforts, the strategy pursued by the international community appears to
be headed towards another failure because by now, neither the Albanians,
nor the Serbs trust the international community.
The
reasons for the Serb paranoia are well-known. The Albanian distrust in
the fairness, the honesty, and the good intentions of the international
community is a relatively new phenomenon that could have wide implications
in the future for them and for the international community. The Albanians
will continue to view the behavior of the international community with
a great deal of suspicion. They have come to realize that Miloshevic has
called the Western fulminations, sanctions, military demonstrations, and
NATO meetings, a bluff. Miloshevic will continue to call them a bluff.
In fact, in their opinion, Miloshevic was certain that the behavior of
the international community was complacent to him, as long as he would
manage to cleanse fast and without many civilian casualties some parts
of Kosova. As a result, while for the last three months the international
community was doing practically nothing to stop Miloshevic and it was allowing
Serbia to get away with a full-fledged war with Albanians. The Albanians
have lost their faith in the international community; their distrust in
the international institutions is increasing with the mounting threats
from NATO and other organisms that they will bomb and shell the KLA bases
in Kosova.
The
Serb and the Albanian distrust of the international community has hardened
their positions and it has made the intermediating role of the international
community more difficult. Throughout this analysis I have insisted on using
the term 'international community.' Probably, the failure of the strategy
might be due to the non-existence of such community. The Serbs are relying
on Russia and the Yeltsinian "politika balshoj dublinski" (the big stick
policy) to advance their claims on Kosova. They have given to Russians
the much needed portual facilities in the Mediterranean and the Adriatic
Sea. Strategically speaking, this would undermine any NATO expansion in
the Eastern Europe making the Southern Europe very vulnerable. Strangely
enough, the greatest support for the Serb cause is coming from the European
Union, especially from the Italians and the French. Considering the Albanians
as their common enemy, Greeks and Serbs have cooperated intensively not
to allow the creation of an Albanian state.
On
the other hand, the Albanians have come to conclusion that they have no
significant supporters in the international community. For ideological
reasons, the European Union cannot accept the existence of an Albanian
state. Numerous visits by high ranking US and European officials appear
to have had the desired effect on the Turkish side. For one, Turkey has
abandoned its position that in case Kosova was attacked, it would intervene
militarily. It has become clear that Turkey does not want to risk its precarious
position vis a vis the US and the European Union. It is high time for the
United States to look after its long-term interests in the region. At the
moment, it is in the United States vital interest that Kosova issue be
solved as fast as possible and as fairly as possible. Considering the independence
of Kosova as a possible option would not be neither unjustified nor unrealistic.
In fact, considering the reality on the ground, the time for transversal
policies is over. Unless the U.S. show some impartiality and fairness in
this game, chances are that the Albanians might decide to look for support
from other states and these might be the wrong places.
4. CONCLUSION
In this analysis I have examined the reasons why
the policy pursued by the international community in the past could not
prevent the Serb–Albanian conflict. I have argued that its fundamental
assumptions are mistaken and that by insisting on the same objectives while
the reality on the ground has radically changed, the international community's
Balkan policy is headed towards another downfall. The fundamental unchanged
assumption of the international community's strategy, the belief that a
second Yugoslav experiment could be repeated successfully with Serbs, Montenegrins
and Albanians is, under the current circumstances, extremely imprudent
and unrealistic. The current containment and appeasement policy a la Münich
will not work. Furthermore, I have argued that the longer the Serb–Albanian
War lasts, the more the chances are increased that a part of the Albanians
in Albania, if not even the Albanian government itself, will have no other
choice but to support the Albanians in Kosova and fight on their side.
At the regional security level, the expectations are that in case the war
spreads, all of the Balkans will blow up, involving in this war Greece,
Bulgaria, and Turkey. Any further escalation of the conflict in Kosova
will have a domino effect on Bosnia. The "three in one and each on its
own" solution will not hold. While the Serbs will have their hands full
fighting in Kosova, Bosnians, Croats, the Muslims of Sandjak, and Montenegrins,
will seek to make the best they to get back to the Serbs and to each-other.
This is the way hell could break loose once again in the former Yugoslavia.
For the time being, there is no possible way to force the Albanians of
Kosova to live in a common state with the Serbs that want all of them out
of Kosova. Therefore, the option of the independence for Kosova must be
seriously considered by the international community. In the future, Albanians
and Serbs might have excellent relations. It must be clear to the international
community that, at this moment and in the immediate future, there are no
realistic chances that these two peoples could live together in a single
state. I have argued that Kosova's claim to independence is well-justified,
that for the Albanians who make up the overwhelming majority of the population,
Kosova is the cradle of their nation. I also have argued that the fears
of the international community that Kosova's independence might have serious
regional implications are unfounded and based upon an erroneous reading
of the Albanian situation. If anything else, the prolongation and the intensification
of the conflict will have disastrous consequences for the region. If the
conflict is prolonged and the front-line is expanded to Eastern and Southern
Kosova. the spillover of war to Macedonia and Albania is inevitable. The
consequences will be exactly what the current policy of the international
community claims that is seeking to prevent from happening.
There
is growing distrust among the Albanians in the fairness of the international
community. Their experience has convinced them that the international community
does not necessarily give the same weight to the same principles in different
circumstances. The post-Dayton period has been a period charged with tensions
and Albanians have reached the point where they will not consider the intervention
of the international community except as a hostile intervention. The recent
threats issued by high NATO officials have strengthened their belief that
the international community is there to prevent them from achieving their
goal of full independence of Kosova.
Finally, the solution of the Kosova problem can come about without the
international community's involvement. The failure of the international
community's strategy, supported by ample evidence in this analysis, begs
for some serious reconsiderations. Under the present conditions, if the
international community wants to intervene and to succeed in solving the
Kosova issue, it should also take into serious consideration the possibility
of the independence of Kosova.
It
is clear that for the Serbs, Kosova is definitely lost. The attempts to
divide and partition Kosova are bound not only to lead to the destabilization
of Macedonia, they also will lead to an involvement of Albania in a peasant
and guerrilla war that it will be very difficult to stop without heavy
casualties. The likely outcome of that scenario is hard to predict. What
is worth mentioning here is that, given the geostrategic position of the
peninsula, and in particular, the key geopolitical position held there
by the Albanians, one might say with some certainty that the failure of
the international community to adopt a strategic approach that might lead
towards a realist and definitive solution of the Albanian problem in the
former Yugoslavia, that is, at least, the acceptance of the independence
of Kosova as a possible option is bound to have grave consequences for
the long term interests of the powers which have vital interests in the
region. This is especially true for the long term interests of the United
States.
The
Albanians will not have the kind of political class they have now for too
long. The emergence of KLA and the growing distrust in the intentions of
the international community are indications that the emergence of a political
class which will be extremely realist in its foreign policy assumptions
is more likely, especially when one considers that the future Albanian
politicians will come from a traditional non-Hoxhaist background. The consequence
of the failure of the international community to act properly is that its
ability to influence the future developments in Albania and the Balkan
will be greatly hampered. With their state, or without any state, Albanians
will continue to be a factor of primary importance in the region and for
the security of Europe and the Mediterranean basin.