Montenegro and SerbiaCONFEDERATION OR INDEPENDENCE
Montenegro, the smaller member of the Yugoslav federation, will propose to Serbia that the current two-member federation be transformed into an alliance of independent states or a loose federation, basically a confederation. Such an alliance, as Montenegrin Democratic Party of Socialists executive board chairman Miodrag Vukovic told BETA, would have several joint functions institutionally represented by joint institutions. In these institutions, Serbia and Montenegro would enjoy "full parity," and decisions would be reached by consensus. Majority decision-making would be possible only in special cases -- on clearly defined issues. A working version of this proposal was sent on July 7, to the Democratic Party's Socialists' coalition partners, the People's Party and Social-Democratic Party.
Besides transformation into an alliance of independent states or loose federation, the current federal administration would be replaced by some form of council of ministers. Joint jurisdiction would extend to monetary policy, the military, and foreign policy. Another option is the introduction of a Montenegrin currency.
The coalition partners in Montenegro have just begun to harmonize their various proposals on this issue. Well-informed sources in Podgorica told BETA that the Social-Democratic Party, which had advocated much greater autonomy for Montenegro, had already made serious objections to the proposal. Neither Vukovic nor other officials of the ruling coalition were prepared to talk about the sticking points. The ruling coalition is, however, unified in its stance that Montenegro should hold a referendum on independence if relations in the Yugoslav federation are not redefined.
Djukanovic
Sources close to Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic say the ruling coalition opted for establishing a joint platform on the redefinition of the federation after Djukanovic met with U.S. President Bill Clinton in Slovenia two weeks ago. Following this meeting, some very sketchy material for the new relationship between Serbia and Montenegro, with which the Montenegrin delegation appeared at the first conference on the Balkans Stability Pact held in Bonn in late April, was developed into the much clearer demands for Montenegrin sovereignty.
In its demands for serious reforms at the federal level and concessions from Serbia, Montenegro has support from numerous international factors. At a meeting of ruling European socialist parties devoted to the future of the Balkans held last weekend in Vienna, Montenegro's stand that only it can decide on its future was backed, said Social-Democratic Party president Zarko Rakcevic, who attended the conference. Rakcevic also said all southeastern European countries might be able to become EU members by skipping some of the usual requirements.
Milosevic
Montenegrin officials continue to fear that their demands for reforming the federation could spark further conflict with Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic. Sources in Montenegro believe that Milosevic's career is nearing its close now that his government's Kosovo policy has reached a dead end.
If Milosevic is forced to step down anytime soon, the Montenegrin authorities believe that they could easily reach an agreement on peaceful coexistence with his successor. If that does not happen, relations with Belgrade will deteriorate and become increasingly complex.
The key problem in relations between the two federal units is control of the federal government. In May last year, when he saw that Djukanovic's would beat his close associate Momir Bulatovic, Milosevic appointed Bulatovic federal prime minister. Montenegro has since demanded that it be allowed to decide who will be prime minister because the federal president, Milosevic, is from Serbia. Montenegro has also asked that its 20-member delegation be admitted to the upper house of Parliament, which has thus far been denied. Milosevic, naturally, refuses this because it would mean losing majority support in Parliament.
Djukanovic is already cooperating closely with parties from the opposition Alliance for Change. At the same time, Serbia's largest opposition party, the Serbian Renewal Movement, has called on Milosevic to abandon his intention to reshuffle Bulatovic's cabinet, and cede the federal prime ministry to Montenegro. In addition, the party urged the implementation of "a new constitutional framework" in the Yugoslav federation, which is in line with Montenegro's demands for new ties between the federal units.
Resistance
Milosevic still has a very strong influence on events in Montenegro, especially in northern parts of the republic, which are traditionally pro-Serb. The Socialist People's Party of Montenegro, headed by Bulatovic, is very popular in these regions. As a result, the Montenegrin authorities continue to exercise considerable caution before making any move that could lead to internal unrest, or even large-scale conflict.
The Socialist People's Party feels that the Belgrade authorities are slowly losing their hold on power, and that support for independence in Montenegro in growing. As a result, it is demanding that a referendum on independence be held as soon as possible, believing that most Montenegrins would not vote against leaving Yugoslavia at this time. Bulatovic's party controls 29 seats in the 78-seat Montenegrin legislature, so it can block any attempt to amend the Montenegrin constitution as such motions require a two-thirds majority to pass.
Sources in Podgorica believe that fear of a possible increase in international tensions prompted the government to abandon its Montenegrin Citizenship Bill and Property Bill.
According to the Citizenship Bill, Montenegrin, not Yugoslav citizenship would have primacy, while the Property Bill would have enabled Montenegro to take control of the two airports in the republic which currently belong to the Yugoslav state-run airline, Yugoslav Airlines.
Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists is due to hold a series of meeting this week with Serbian parties that have seats in Yugoslavia's parliament. Of key importance are meetings with officials of the ruling Socialist Party of Serbia scheduled for this week.
The Democratic Party of Socialists intends to officially call for negotiations on redefining the federation, but has not yet sent any proposal to the Serbian parties. A senior official of the Socialist Party of Serbia said the party would try to stop Yugoslavia from being transformed into a confederation, but did not rule out the possibility that they and Djukanovic's party might be able to make some sort of deal after all. The same source said it might be possible to resolve the key differences between Serbia and Montenegro "face to face," in direct contacts between Milo Djukanovic and Slobodan Milosevic. According what the source told BETA, such a meeting could take place "very soon."
(Beta)
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