WELCOME TO IWPR'S BALKAN CRISIS REPORT, NO. 76, September 17, 1999
COMMENT: TOO SOON TO CALL THE KOSOVARS TO VOTEUNMIK may hold local elections in Kosovo as a 'dry-run' for a general election scheduled for next May. But such a vote could swamp new political parties struggling to establish themselves, and turn the election process into a two-horse race - which Ibrahim Rugova may win too easily.
By Nebi Qena in Pristina
Kosovo's post-war political climate blends undefined ambition and lightweight players. The euphoria of liberation has all but expired and the Albanian leaders have no clear orientation.
Running elections in this undefined political environment, involving political parties that are presently little more than names, could produce a misleading result. And ten years of dubious underground elections, held in defiance of the former Serb authorities in Kosovo, do not justify any political party's claim to a majority.
Yet according to Western diplomatic sources, the UN Civil Administration (UNMIK), led by Frenchman Bernard Kouchner, is considering holding local authority elections as a test run for general elections due in May 2000. "There has been talk of this, but it is still not clear yet", said a senior Western diplomat, speaking under condition of anonymity. "If the voting lists are at least 70 percent complete, than this might go ahead", he said.
Such local elections should not be held as a dry run for bigger nationwide polls. All this is well in a democratic society with a tradition of participation in free elections. But an Albanian party that did well in a local election might acquire a status it did not deserve - and turn a tide of bemused Kosovar voters towards it at the general elections.
The Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), once the largest political party here, is still in the process of transformation. It is not only coming to terms with the new situation in the country, but also the change in the status of its leader, Ibrahim Rugova.
Rugova's once undisputed popularity declined with the rise to eminence of the guerillas of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) and strained by his humiliating televised meetings with Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic during the NATO airstrikes. But the President of the self-styled Republic of Kosova still enjoys respect in the rural areas and among some Pristina based intellectuals, despite the fact that the KLA and many local media organs have branded him a traitor.
Yet he has a reputation as a survivor, based on a policy of inaction. By standing aloof of the issues, Rugova has survived through the mistakes made of his rivals, which appears to be the case again. Though the last of the Albanian leaders to return to 'liberated' Kosovo, UNMIK and KFOR criticism of the KLA leadership's failure to control the violence against the province's remaining ethnic Serbs helped swing the pendulum of support towards Rugova.
According to many local analysts, Rugova has a very good chance of winning the first free Kosova elections. People weary of an ever-growing number of people presenting themselves as KLA soldiers and seizing apartments or high town premises are also likely to favour Rugova in the local elections.
Meanwhile the KLA leadership itself has disintegrated into a number of parties. The most noteworthy is the Party of Democratic Unity (PBD), led by Bardhyl Mahmuti, the former KLA political representative for Western Europe, which has managed to attract the support of several well-known and respected KLA field commanders.
Hashim Thaci, prime minister of Kosovo's Interim Government - not recognised by UNMIK - has also announced that he will also form his own political party, without giving details. Last week Thaci visited the village of Prekaz, where he met Rifat Jashari, the only surviving brother of the family of Adem Jashari, whose sacrifice is recognised by the Kosovars as the flash point where the war of liberation began.
Serb forces attacked the Jashari family compound in Prekaz on the morning of March 5, 1998, in a bid to wipe out the Kosovo rebellion in its infancy. Instead, the death of Jashari and some 50 others rallied the KLA into an all-out war of liberation.
Support from the Jashari family would be a powerful advantage in any election. Thaci also met the KLA's Drenica zone commander in an attempt to confirm local support for his party in the making - but it also the division between Thaci and Mahmuti, who has supporters of his own, within segments of the KLA. Yet these new would-be political players have no clear aim or political agenda yet.
This leaves the Kosova electorate, 'illiterates' where it comes to the language of democratic elections, left in a disorienting muddle of one-man political parties, all bellowing for their support.
Some think that a local vote would be practice for the 'real thing'. One diplomatic source said it "would be preparation for democratic elections". But local elections in the present atmosphere would reduce the vote to a two-horse race between Rugova and Thaci, effectively strangling the development of other new political parties.
Also, forced to choose between the two, a large segment would simply choose neither. The intelligentsia will probably do the same.
Rugova has visited the countryside only once in the ten years he spent as head of Kosovar non-violent resistance to Serb rule, in 1998, when he went on a tour with then US ambassador Chris Hill. Yet the end result of a local vote will probably see Rugova, the 'nice guy with a ready smile', take the lead and move on to a easy victory at the general election.Nebi Qena is a journalist with Koha Ditore.
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