Schweizer Bundespräsident würdigt in London Leistungen der EU
London (dpa) - Der Schweizer Bundespräsident Flavio Cotti hat am Donnerstag in London die Europäische Union als «außerordentliche und historisch einzigartige Entwicklung» gewürdigt. Bei seinem eintägigen Besuch der britischen Hauptstadt wies er in einem Vortrag vor dem Institut für auswärtige Angelegenheiten darauf hin, daß die EU ihr Hauptziel erreicht habe - «zu verhindern, daß sich die Geschichte wiederholt». Wenn sich die Schweiz der Union anschließe, stelle dies eine wahrhaft historische Entwicklung dar, betonte das Staatsoberhaupt der Schweiz.
     Düster beurteilte Cotti die Entwicklung im Kosovo. «Licht am Ende des Tunnels vermag ich trotz aller Anstrengungen der internationalen Gemeinschaft nicht zu entdecken», hob er hervor. Es sei nicht zu erkennen, daß man dort von denselben Grundwerten ausgehe. «Gewalt gibt den Ton an. Noch immer herrscht extremer Nationalismus vor, den ein paar unverantwortliche Politiker weiter anfachen», unterstrich er.
     Mit Königin Elizabeth II. war Conti zum Auftakt seines Besuchs im Buckingham Palast zusammengetroffen. Ein politischer Meinungsaustausch mit Premierminister Tony Blair in der Downing Street schloß seinen Aufenthalt ab.
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UCK will entführte serbische Journalisten dem Roten Kreuz übergeben
Belgrad/Pristina (dpa) - Die albanische Untergrundarmee UCK ist bereit, die beiden am vergangenen Sonntag entführten serbischen Journalisten dem Internationalen Komitee vom Roten Kreuz (IKRK) zu übergeben. Das habe ein Pressesprecher der UCK-Militärpolizei am Donnerstag gesagt, berichtete die Nachrichtenagentur Beta (Belgrad) aus der Kosovo-Hauptstadt Pristina.
     Gegen die beiden Reporter der staatlichen jugoslawischen Nachrichtenagentur Tanjug sei eine «korrekte» Ermittlung eingeleitet worden. Falls sie nicht am serbischen Kampf gegen das albanische Volk teilgenommen haben, würden sie bald freigelassen, sagte der Sprecher.
     Mehrere jugoslawische und internationale Journalistenorganisationen hatten von der UCK die Freilassung der Reporter verlangt. Die entführten Journalisten wollten über einen UCK-Angriff auf serbische Polizisten im Dorf Magura bei Pristina berichten, als sie verschleppt wurden.
     Ende August hatte die UCK zwei Journalisten des serbischen Rundfunks aus Pristina entführt. Sie gelten seitdem als vermißt.
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Nato billigt «Adlerauge» für Kosovo - Rugova: Abkommen annehmen
Brüssel/Belgrad/London (dpa) - Die Nato hat den Plan «Eagle Eye» (Adlerauge) für die Luftüberwachung des Abzugs der Sicherheitskräfte Belgrads aus der südjugoslawischen Provinz Kosovo gebilligt. Das Innenministerium der jugoslawischen Teilrepublik Serbien erklärte unterdessen, daß alle Einheiten der Sonderpolizei aus dem Kosovo abgezogen worden seien. Der britische Außenminister Robin Cook vertrat am Donnerstag die Ansicht, daß der Druck des Westens auf den jugoslawischen Präsidenten Slobodan Milosevic beibehalten werden müsse, um eine friedliche Lösung der Kosovo-Krise zu erreichen.
     Aus dem Hauptquartier der Nato in Brüssel verlautete am Donnerstag, daß der Plan «Adlerauge» zur Luftüberwachung des Kosovo mit unbewaffneten Aufklärungsflugzeugen jederzeit beginnen könne. Mit dem Operationsplan können nunmehr Flugzeuge anderer Bündnispartner die schon seit dem Wochenende über dem Kosovo eingesetzten US-Spionagemaschinen unterstützen. Rußland hatte am Vortag angeboten, sich mit einer Maschine an den Aufklärungsflügen zu beteiligen.
     Der politische Führer der Kosovo-Albaner, Ibrahim Rugova, hat die albanische Untergrundarmee UCK am Donnerstag zu «Zurückhaltung» aufgerufen. Das habe er nach einem Treffen mit dem amerikanischen Kosovo-Vermittler Christopher Hill in Pristina gesagt, meldet die Nachrichtenagentur Beta (Belgrad). Gleichzeitig rief er die Kosovo-Albaner auf, das vereinbarte Abkommen über eine friedliche Lösung der Kosovo-Krise anzunehmen. An der Begegnung nahmen auch der EU-Beauftragte für das Kosovo, Wolfgang Petritsch, und westliche Diplomaten teil.
     Bei einem Besuch in Rumänien erklärte der britische Außenminister Robin Cook, daß der Druck auf Milosevic zu einer friedlichen Lösung der Kosovo-Krise beibehalten werden müsse. Nur dann eröffneten die in der Vorwoche getroffenen Vereinbarungen Perspektiven für eine Lösung. Zuvor hatte Cook die Kosovo-Albaner zur Annahme des Kosovo-Abkommens aufgerufen. Das Abkommen sei nicht perfekt, es biete aber die Möglichkeit für einen Fortschritt hin zu einer albanischen Selbstverwaltung im Kosovo, sagte Cook in einem Interview der albanischen Zeitung «Koha Ditore» (Pristina).
     Rußlands Außenminister Igor Iwanow äußerte sich am Donnerstag besorgt über die «Aktivierung der Kosovo-Terroristen» - die zunehmenden Aktivitäten der Untergrundarmee UCK. Die Internationale Kontaktgruppe wolle am Donnerstag «noch eine ernste Warnung gegen all jene, in erster Linie gegen die albanischen Separatisten, aussprechen, die die Friedensvereinbarungen brechen wollen», zitierte die Agentur Interfax den Außenminister.
     Das albanische Menschenrechtskomitee in Djakovica berichtete am Donnerstag, daß vier Kosovo-Albaner am Morgen von jugoslawischen Sicherheitskräften an der Grenze zu Albanien erschossen worden seien. Unter den Toten waren nach diesen Angaben drei Kinder. Eine größere Familie, die im Sommer vor den Kampfhandlungen nach Albanien geflohen war, hatte offenbar versucht, über die grüne Grenze in ihr Heimatdorf zurückzukehren.
     Bei den diplomatischen Bemühungen zur Beilegung des Kosovo-Konflikts haben sich nach Ansicht des Internationalen Instituts für Strategische Studien (IISS) in London die Grenzen für Drohungen mit militärischer Gewalt gezeigt. «(Der US-Vermittler) Richard Holbrooke hat erreicht, was er konnte mit dem, was man ihm gelassen hat», sagte IISS-Leiter John Chipman am Donnerstag in London bei Vorlage des Jahrbuchs «Military Balance 1998/99». Die nur durch Androhung von Luftangriffen unterstützten diplomatischen Bemühungen hätten nicht mehr bewirken können. «Wenn die Bereitschaft zu militärischem Engagement auf Distanz bleibt, ist auch das diplomatische Ergebnis weniger komplett», sagte Chipman.
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Scharping nahm erste Kontakte zu Nato-Kollegen auf
Bonn (dpa) - Der künftige deutcshe Verteidigungsminister Rudolf Scharping hat erste Kontakte zu Nato-Kollegen aufgenommen. Wie am Donnerstag zu erfahren war, traf Scharping am Mittwoch abend mit seinem französischen Kollegen Alain Richard zusammen. Die Zusammenkunft an einem unbekannten Ort wurde als privates Treffen deklariert.
     Wie weiter berichtet wurde, hat Scharping mit dem britischen Verteidigungsminister George Robertson telefoniert. Auch über dieses Gespräch wurde nichts mitgeteilt.
     Nach den Informationen gehörten zu den Themen der Besprechungen hauptsächlich die Lage im Kosovo. Dabei sei es um einen möglichen Nato-Einsatz gegangen, falls der jugoslawische Präsident Slobodan Milosevic seine Zusagen zum Abzug serbischer Einheiten aus dem Kosovo nicht einhalten sollte.
     Scharping hat dem Vernehmen nach Richard und Robertson auch seine Vorstellungen über die Zukunft der Bundeswehr unter der Regierung aus Sozialdemokraten (SPD) und Grünen erläutert. Er wird am Mittwoch nächster Woche offiziell sein Amt als Verteidigungsminister übernehmen.
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US-Vermittler Hill und Diplomaten bei Rugova
Pristina (dpa) - Der amerikanische Kosovo-Vermittler Christopher Hill ist am Donnerstag in Pristina mit dem führenden Vertreter der Kosovo-Albaner, Ibrahim Rugova, zusammengetroffen. An der Begegnung nahmen auch der EU-Beauftragte für das Kosovo, Wolfgang Petritsch, und Diplomaten aus Deutschland und Großbritannien teil. Im Mittelpunkt des Gespräches standen Wege zur friedlichen Beilegung des Konfliktes in der mehrheitlich von Albanern bewohnten und serbisch verwalteten Unruhe-Provinz.
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Eagleburger bezeichnet Kosovo als gefährlich für alle Nachbarstaaten
Sofia (dpa) - Der Konflikt in der südjugoslawischen Provinz Kosovo ist nach Ansicht des früheren US-Außenministers Lawrence Eagleburger für alle Nachbarstaaten gefährlich. In der Balkan-Region werde es noch sehr lange Probleme geben, sagte Eagleburger nach einem Bericht der amtlichen bulgarischen Nachrichtenagentur BTA vom Mittwoch. Eagleburger begründete seine Prognose mit dem Nationalismus der Staaten auf dem Balkan.
     Eagleburger beteiligte sich in Sofia an einer internationalen Konferenz zu Auslandsinvestitionen. Er gab Bulgarien den Rat, nur die Auslandsinvestitionen anzunehmen, die «von Nutzen für den Staat» sind. Die Investitionen der USA würden von West- nach Osteuropa verlagert, sagte Eagleburger.
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IISS: Diplomatische Bemühungen um Kosovo konnten nicht mehr bringen
London (dpa) - Bei den diplomatischen Bemühungen zur Beilegung des Kosovo-Konflikts haben sich nach Ansicht des Internationalen Instituts für Strategische Studien (IISS) in London die Grenzen für Drohungen mit militärischer Gewalt gezeigt. «Richard Holbrooke hat erreicht, was er konnte mit dem, was man ihm gelassen hat», sagte IISS-Leiter John Chipman am Donnerstag in London bei Vorlage des Jahrbuchs «Military Balance 1998/99». Die nur durch Androhung von Luftangriffen unterstützten diplomatischen Bemühungen hätten nicht mehr bewirken können. «Wenn die Bereitschaft zu militärischem Engagement auf Distanz bleibt, ist auch das diplomatische Ergebnis weniger komplett», sagte Chipman.
     Nach Meinung des Instituts-Chefs bleiben Resultate diplomatischer Verhandlungen meist hinter den Erwartungen zurück, wenn klar wird, daß mit Anwendung von Gewalt allein die angestrebten Ziele nicht zu erreichen sind. «Luftangriffe gegen Jugoslawien würden nicht zur Rückkehr albanischer Flüchtlinge führen oder ein akzeptables Maß an Selbstbestimmung für den Kosovo bewirken», sagte er. Wenn die Nato wirklich zu massiver Gewaltanwendung bereit gewesen wäre, hätte man möglicherweise 100 000 Soldaten am Boden einsetzen müssen.
     Zu weiteren bedeutenden Erkenntnissen des abgelaufenen Jahres zählt nach IISS-Überlegungen die Feststellung, daß Terrorismus nicht nach den Doktrinen und mit den Instrumenten klassischer Kriegsführung bekämpft werden kann. Dies sei auch bei den Raketenangriffen auf angebliche Terroristenziele in Afghanistan und Sudan deutlich geworden. Dafür sei auch die «Privatisierung der Gewalt» nach einer Zeit staatlich propagierter Terroraktivitäten verantwortlich. Der saudische Terrorist Osama bin Laden sei dafür ein Beispiel.
     In dem jährlichen Überblick über den weltweiten Waffenhandel, der nach dem Ende des Kalten Krieges drastisch zurückgegangen war, hat das Institut wieder eine Belebung festgestellt. Nach dem Absinken der Rüstungsumsätze Ende der 80er Jahre etwa auf die Hälfte früherer Werte stiegen sie nach einem IISS-Überblick allein 1997 wieder um zwölf Prozent auf etwa 46 Milliarden Dollar an.
     Dieses Ergebnis sei real 36 Prozent höher gewesen als das Volumen von 1994. Vor allem die Lieferung größerer Waffensysteme in den Nahen Osten, wo als Folge des Golfkriegs wieder aufgerüstet wurde, trieb den Umsatz in die Höhe, schildert das unabhängige Institut. Die Länder Ostasiens verdoppelten ihre Rüstungsausgaben seit 1994. Im laufenden und im folgenden Jahr wird allerdings weltweit wieder mit einem Umsatzrückgang gerechnet.
     Die USA exportierten im vergangenen Jahr Waffen und militärische Dienstleistungen im Wert von 21 Milliarden Dollar. Sie sicherten sich damit einen Anteil von 45 Prozent am internationalen Waffenhandel. Die russischen Rüstungsexporte gingen auf 2,6 Milliarden Dollar zurück, gegenüber 3,6 Milliarden Dollar in 1996.
     Nachdrücklich setzt sich das Institut für stärkere Kooperation der Verteidigungsindustrien der Nato-Länder ein. «Die Regierungen der Allianz müssen die jeweiligen nationalen Auflagen für den Besitz von Rüstungsbetrieben beseitigen, damit sich Strukturen einer transatlantischen Verteidigungsindustrie entwickeln können,» forderte Chipman.
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Cook in Bukarest: Druck auf Milosevic muß beibehalten werden
Bukarest (dpa) - Der Druck auf den jugoslawischen Präsidenten Slobodan Milosevic zu einer friedlichen Lösung der Kosovo-Krise muß nach Ansicht des britischen Außenministers Robin Cook beibehalten werden. Nur dann eröffneten die neuen Vereinbarungen Perspektiven für eine Lösung, sagte Cook am Donnerstag nach Gesprächen mit der Regierung in Bukarest über die Lage in der Krisenprovinz Kosovo.
     Milosevic brauche keine weiteren Warnungen seitens der UN, sagte Cook. Die Nato sei, so wie es ihr Generalsekretär Javier Solana gesagt habe, weiterhin bereit zu einer Intervention. Cook sagte, er hoffe jedoch, daß beide Seiten, auch die Kosovo-Albaner, sich an den Waffenstillstand halten.
     Cook hatte am Mittwoch abend nach Gesprächen mit dem politischen Führer der Kosovo-Albaner, Ibrahim Rugova, in der mazedonischen Hauptstadt Skopje einen offiziellen Besuch in Bukarest begonnen. Er traf mit Rumäniens Staatspräsident Emil Constantinescu und mit seinem rumänischen Kollegen Andrei Plesu zusammen.
     Man sei sich einig, daß das Kosovo-Problem «noch lange nicht gelöst sei», sagte Plesu. Geplant war am Donnerstag auch ein Treffen mit Rumäniens Ministerpräsident Radu Vasile.
     Cook sagte, daß zu einer Lösung auch die Staaten in der Region beitragen könnten. Die internationalen Bemühungen dazu seien nicht nur in der Sorge um die Kosovo-Albaner begründet. Es gehe um die Stabilität in der gesamten Region. Aus Rumänien kämen in diesem Zusammenhang «konstruktive Signale», da es ein freies, demokratisches Land sei. Milosevic hingegen treibe sein Volk immer weiter in die Isolation.
     Der britische Außenminster betonte, daß die Nato offen bleibe. Rumäniens Platz sei «im modernen Europa». Cook wollte nach einem Gespräch mit Rumäniens Ministerpräsident Radu Vasile am Donnerstag nachmittag abreisen.
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Albaner: Drei Kinder an jugoslawisch-albanischer Grenze getötet
Pristina (dpa) - Jugoslawische Sicherheitskräfte haben nach albanischen Angaben am Donnerstag früh an der Grenze zu Albanien vier Albaner, darunter drei Kinder, erschossen. Der Vorfall habe sich im Dorf Grcina ereignet, nur 300 Meter von der Staatsgrenze entfernt, berichtete das albanische Komitee zur Verteidigung der Menschenrechte in Djakovica unter Berufung auf Überlebende. Zwei Personen seien verletzt worden.
     Die Opfer gehörten zu einer Familie aus dem Grenzdorf, die im Frühsommer vor den Kampfhandlungen ins benachbarte Albanien geflüchtet seien. Nach dem vorliegenden Bericht wollte eine Gruppe von Angehörigen dieser Familie in der Nacht zum Donnerstag über die «grüne» Grenze in ihr grenznahes Anwesen zurückkehren. Dabei seien sie offenbar von jugoslawischen Sicherheitskräften überrascht worden.
     Der Bericht wurde von jugoslawischer oder serbischer Seite nicht bestätigt.
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UN ohne Entscheidung zu Kosovo - Holbrooke warnt Milosevic
New York/Paris/Brüssel (dpa) - Der Weltsicherheitsrat in New York hat sich am Mittwoch nur kurz mit der Initiative der Kontaktgruppe für eine neue Kosovo-Resolution befaßt. Irgendwelche Entscheidungen wurden nicht getroffen. Zuvor hatte US-Unterhändler Richard Holbrooke den jugoslawischen Präsidenten Slobodan Milosevic eindringlich davor gewarnt, von den Zusagen für eine politische Lösung des Konflikts abzurücken. Das könne «dramatische Folgen» haben, sagte Holbrooke in Paris.
     Die Nato sei weiter für Luftangriffe vorbereitet. «Die serbischen Sicherheitskräfte wenden bis zu diesem Tag nicht die Resolution 1199 des Sicherheitsrates der UN an», stellte Holbrooke fest. Die Allianz hatte Milosevic bis kommenden Dienstag eine Frist gesetzt, seine Verpflichtungen zu erfüllen.
     Nach einem Bericht des Nato-Oberkommandierenden in Europa, General Wesley Clark, vor dem Nato-Rat in Brüssel nannte auch ein hoher Beamter der Allianz das bisherigen Vorgehen der Führung in Belgrad unzureichend. Clark war am Dienstag mit Milosevic in Belgrad zusammengetroffen. Der Oberbefehlshaber habe eine deutliche Warnung ausgesprochen, hieß es in Brüssel.
     Mit der neuen UN-Resolution sollte den Vereinbarungen zwischen Belgrad mit der Nato über unbewaffnete Nato-Überwachungsflüge über der Krisenprovinz sowie mit der Organisation für Sicherheit und Zusammenarbeit in Europa (OSZE) über die Entsendung von 2 000 zivilen OSZE-Beobachtern Nachdruck verliehen werden.
     Bereits vor Beginn der Sitzung hatten sich im höchsten UN-Gremium Gegensätze abgezeichnet: Rußland wollte, obwohl es Mitglied der Kontaktgruppe ist, einen eigenen Resolutionsentwurf vorlegen und darin sicherstellen, daß keine weiteren Maßnahmen ohne neuen Beschluß möglich werden. Gerade das aber wollen die übrigen Mitglieder der Kontaktgruppe - die USA, Großbritannien, Frankreich, Deutschland und Italien - zumindest offenlassen.
     Die Nato bereitete unterdessen weiter die Aufklärungsflüge über dem Kosovo vor. Nach einer Zustimmung zu dem Plan für die Operation «Eagle Eye (Adlerauge)» - voraussichtlich bis zum heutigen Donnerstag - dürften die unbewaffneten Flüge, an denen sich Rußland beteiligen will, in den kommenden Tagen beginnen, verlautete aus dem Hauptquartier der Allianz.
     Die internationale Kontaktgruppe begrüßte das Eintreten des Führers der Kosovo-Albaner, Ibrahim Rugova, für eine politische Lösung der Probleme. «Ein Weg für eine friedliche und politische Kosovo-Lösung ist offen», hieß es in dem Schreiben, das der französische Außenminister Hubert Vedrine im Namen der Kontaktgruppe unterzeichnete.
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zurück zu    ==> Teil 1

West 'not ready to back diplomacy with force'

The influential International Institute for Strategic Studies in London has questioned the will of the West to sustain credible force to back its diplomacy.
The institute's annual survey of arms spending and military capabilities points out that in Iraq and Yugoslavia, the West threatened force - but then failed to follow through or settled for diplomatic solutions.
It also says that the United States faced "overstretch" this year in deployments to the Gulf, the Balkans and other trouble spots.
The institute says there are serious questions over the US's capability to conduct operations in more than one region at a time. It points out that, while defence budgets have continued to decline in Europe and North America, military spending is soaring in the Middle East.
"Once again, the thorny issues surrounding the use of force and diplomacy have challenged the major western powers," it says.
It adds that the West's problems are complicated by the refusal of its Middle East allies - Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates - to provide facilities for an attack on Iraq.
The opposition of key partner Russia to any use of force by Nato against Yugoslavia was also a contributory factor in not carrying through threats.
The report says an extended Nato-led peacekeeping mission in Bosnia, instability in Kosovo and tension in the Gulf arising from Iraq's obstruction of UN weapons inspections severely tested the US's ability to maintain forces at a high state of readiness for protracted periods.

Defence spending and political will

The report says the defence spending of most European Nato allies has continued to fall sharply.
Notable exceptions were Greece and Turkey where the institute said the potential for conflict over Cyprus had increased.
But from 1996 to 1997, there was an overall 9% drop in spending among allies.
"Sustaining defence budgets, even at these reduced levels, requires an act of political will for the majority of Nato's European governments, particularly those which are committed to European Monetary Union and under pressure to meet the criteria for fiscal deficits and government debt," the report says.

Spending 'soars' in Middle East

It adds that arms spending has continued to soar in the Middle East amid growing concern about a regional ballistic missile arms race.
After years of decline since 1987, there was also a clear upward trend in the international arms trade.
IISS analysis shows that in 1996 the arms trade grew by 8% to nearly $40 bn.
The Middle East, the world's biggest arms importing region, increased military spending by 5% to $56 billion, despite a slump in oil prices.

Summary

This first issue of a series of "ECMI Working Papers" published by the newly founded Danish-German "European Centre for Minority Issues" (ECMI) in Flensburg, Germany, documents attempts by international organisations and NGOs to mediate in the Kosovo Albanian-Serbian conflict over Kosovo from the beginning of the war in Bosnia and Hercegovina in the spring 1992 to the Drenica massacre of early March 1998. The author, ECMI Director Stefan Troebst, pays particular attention to recommendations by diplomatic actors and other third parties seeking to improve the tense status quo, to find interim solutions or to achieve a resolution of the conflict.

The paper documents and analyses the Kosovo policies (or non-policies) of the United Nations, the CSCE/OSCE, the Council of Europe, the International Conference on the Former Yugoslavia, the Peace Implementation Council and the Office of the High Representative, the Contact Group on Bosnia-Herzegovina, NATO, WEU, EU, the European Parliament, the US, the Kinkel Védrine Initiative, and regional initiatives. The same goes for parallel activities by NGOs like the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization, the Minnesota Advocates for Human Rights, the Comunità di Sant'Egidio, the Humanitarian Law Centre at Belgrade, the Aspen-Carnegie International Commission on the Balkans, the Aspen Young Leaders Studies Group on the Future of the Balkans, the South Balkans Working Group, the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, the Transnational Foundation for Peace and Future Research of Lund, the Bertelsmann Science Foundation, the European Action Council for Peace in the Balkans,' the International Helsinki Federation for Human Rights, Human Rights Watch, the Campaign for a Non-Violent Solution of the Problem of Kosov@, and the International Crisis Group.

See: http://www.ecmi.de/wp_r.htm

October 20, 1998

       SITUATION IN KOSOVO: 'CONFLICT CONTINUES TO SMOLDER'

Amidst news last night of mortar shellings in central Kosovo reportedly launched by Serbian forces and recent attacks allegedly mounted by Kosovar Albanians on Serbian police, commentators in Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Latin America weighed in with increasingly pessimistic assessments of the situation in the Serbian province. Observers continued to focus on last week's agreement between U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke and Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic which allows for international monitoring of Belgrade's compliance with UN resolutions calling for an end to the Serbian offensive in Kosovo. After an initial spate of editorial optimism, a majority of analysts one week later expressed skepticism about the plan and its chances for success. Opinionmakers discerned numerous problems with the deal, with many questioning the motives of the major players--especially the U.S., NATO and Serbia. Following are major themes found in the commentary:

CRITICISM UP: A growing number in the media found that the Holbrooke-Milosevic deal was fashioned in a way that satisfied only U.S., NATO and Serbian interests--but not those of the Kosovars. The liberal Toronto Star echoed the sentiments of other media voices: "So what we have is a temporary deal that saves everybody's face and gets everyone off the hook (except the Kosovars, of course).... Nothing is settled, and nobody in Kosovo has been saved." Many saw Mr. Milosevic emerging "strengthened" from the crisis. "He gave in to the requests of the international community...but maintains his power and is playing again the role of the 'big builder of peace' as during the days of the Dayton accord for Bosnia," Milan's leading business Il Sole-24 Ore said. Others faulted the Holbrooke-Milosevic agreement for not containing a "sustainable solution acceptable to all sides involved." They argued that the Kosovo Albanians and the Serbian sides are still too far apart at this point in time, and predicted that the "Kosovo pot" would continue to "boil" for the foreseeable future. "The regional scenario remains...suspended between an impossible peace and an unfeasible war," lamented one Italian writer. Meanwhile, dailies in Belgrade and Moscow complained that the West was biased against the Serbs and was not pressuring the Kosovo Albanians enough to comply with demands to halt fighting.

FEW OPTIMISTIC VOICES: Some opinionmakers took a different view. They were encouraged by the fact that imminent air strikes by NATO had been averted, if temporarily, and judged that this has increased the prospects for a peaceful settlement of the crisis. But even these more optimistic voices cautioned that the UN and NATO must not become "complacent" about Mr. Milosevic, and that NATO "will have to use every means to prevent Milosevic from reneging on the Kosovo deal." One daily in Lima praised the U.S. role in brokering an agreement with the Serbian leader, saying that "for some time, it was feared that the U.S. would not address the most serious international problems because the White House was distracted by President Clinton's political problems. But the recent progress on two crucial fronts--the Balkans and the Middle East--calm this fear, although it cannot be said yet that the problems in these regions will soon be solved. In any case, the reaffirmation of U.S. leadership is so important that it cannot be ignored."

This survey is based on 42 reports from 19 countries, October 15-20.

EDITOR: Diana McCaffrey

                          FORMER YUGOSLAVIA

SERBIA-MONTENEGRO: "Culprits Not Identified By U.S. State Department"

Pro-government Politika (10/19) ran an official new agency "Tanjug" report identical to the one on television the night before criticizing the State Department's alleged lack of reaction to the recent killing of three Serbian policemen in the Kosovo village of Orlate: "Referring to the events in Kosmet (Kosovo-Metohia) of the last three days, (James Rubin) condemned the latest, as he put it, sporadic incidents, but he did not explicitly say that these attacks and provocations had been performed by the so-called Kosovo Liberation Army, the terrorists and the militant separatists who obviously have been trying to undermine the current situation and the just-concluded agreement on the settlement of the crisis."

"NATO's Dangerous Alignment"

Official Politika, Politika Ekspres, and Borba all ran a reprint of an article from army magazine Vojska (10/19): "The debates over the future status of Kosovo-Metohia reveal the reason why Albanian separatist leaders have been stubbornly refusing dialogue with the Serbian authorities and why certain panicky 'concerned' NATO members are not insisting on this. Many questions arise from this: Why do the Albanian separatists and their foreign sponsors not distance themselves from the terrorists; why has the FRY been groundlessly accused of uncooperativeness; and why has NATO been so ardent about the aggression against the FRY? There is reason to believe that the positive attitude of the international community will grow stronger and completely overcome NATO's aggressiveness as well as eliminate the illusions of the Albanian separatists that the status of the Albanian minority in Serbia could be resolved through terrorism."

"Kosovo Albanians Not Obliged To Seek Peace"

Pro-regime Vecernje Novosti ran this commentary by Dubravka Savic (10/19):
"In contrast to Yugoslavia, which is under terrible pressure and threatened by the use of force, the Kosmet Albanians, who have not been obliged to seek peace by any means, are still openly and angrily demanding an independent Kosmet.... At a time when the conditions for normal life in Kosmet are being created and preparations for the beginning of peaceful negotiations are urgently underway, extremist groups from one negotiating party are provoking our suspicions about their willingness to seek a peaceful solution for Kosmet within Yugoslavia, which the whole world community demands. These threats are opening the possibility for new provocations by the Albanian extremists. They can jeopardize the safety of the OSCE observers in this period of high tension."

"Hypocritical Policy Of Big Powers"

State-run Borba held (10/19): "The SRS [Serbian Radical Party] stated last evening that the silence of the U.S. administration and other Western powers about the latest crimes of the Albanian terrorists in Kosovo-Metohia is a confirmation of the hypocritical policy toward the crisis in the southern province of Serbia. Particularly interesting is the fact that neither Javier Solana, nor Wesley Clark, nor Richard Miles expressed their indignation or protest against the crimes of the Albanian separatists and the killing of members of the Serbian police, but they deemed it necessary to express their concern and protest over the temporary banning of the NATO newspapers that are published in Serbia.'"

CROATIA: "Problem Is Milosevic"

Government-controlled Vjesnik carried a commentary by Ivka Bacic (10/15): "A rather porous agreement between Holbrooke and...Milosevic clearly shows that, once again, the problem named Milosevic will not be hit, even with the awareness that cemeteries are full of Milosevic's promises."

"Encouraging Milosevic"

Government-controlled Vjesnik ran this comment by Inoslav Besker (10/18): "The key dilemma is: Will the 'elasticity' of the West favor Milosevic keeping the status quo, or will it help return autonomy to Kosovo to which Milosevic has agreed in talks with Holbrooke.... Balkan cemeteries are full of Milosevic's 'promises.' Clinton's remedy is effective, however, for the time being it deceives the Albanians more than the Serbs. NATO's stick indeed remains raised--but Milosevic has to be encouraged by the fact that it has not come down already three times, although it has been clearly stated in Brussels and Washington that it will if Milosevic does not closely fulfill his promises.... One needs to be concerned not to send, once again, a wrong signal this time, a time in which the Albanians will pay the consequences, like other neighbors have paid before."

"Knowing Limits And Satisfying Vital Strategic Interests"

Pro-government weekly Obzor ran this by Goran Rosic (10/17): "In the end, keeping in mind everything that has been said, it proved that only the naive ones believed that bombs could fall on Belgrade, Krusevac, Tivat.... In other words, Milosevic has once again shown that he perfectly knows how far he can go, and that U.S. envoy Holbrooke, knows how to satisfy its vital strategic interests."

"OSCE--Milosevic's Shield?"

Fran Visnar wrote in pro-government Vjesnik (10/19): "Holbrooke's plan can succeed only if the KLA can be persuaded to voluntarily give up further fighting and to join the peace negotiations since they are one of the interested parties. If this does not happen, a reserve scenario will be activated: What a paradox, NATO will be ready to disarm and 'pacify' the KLA.... In 10 days the observation machine will start working at full capacity, and exactly on the day when a new term placed by NATO on Milosevic for withdrawal of all Serbian forces from Kosovo expires. After that, it is hard to believe that any bombing of Serbian targets will occur, because their shield will be thousands of OSCE observers as well as humanitarian workers and foreign diplomats."

FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA: "Kosovo Wound Still Open"

Centrist, opposition Dnevnik opined (10/19): "The Milosevic-Holbrooke agreement is very good for both sides. But, although it offers some entries on the Kosovo status, the overall impression is that little is done to finally solve the crisis. It is highly unlikely that the aerial verifying mission can provoke incidents, but sending 2,000 unarmed verifiers on the ground might prove dangerous. Skeptics consider them hostages-in-waiting for the Serb side, in case Milosevic decided to break the agreement. For that reason, NATO planners have suggested a rapid reaction force that is to be stationed around Kosovo.... The force should enter Serbia in case of attack on the verifiers. That will mean another war with tragic consequences not only for Kosovo, but also for the surrounding countries."

SLOVENIA: "International Community Should Follow Its Principles"

Left-of-center Delo commented (10/17): "If the international community followed its principles and long-term goals, it would file charges against Milosevic at the international criminal court instead of trading with him. Legitimacy of Milosevic's regime should be revoked, and Milosevic himself...given a possibility to prove his innocence at the court in The Hague. If NATO observed its principles and long-term goals, it would comply with the authority it has been given by the Security Council rather than threatening Yugoslavia with the one-sided use of force. If NATO was authorized, it could act; if not, it should not even think about it. If NATO members are not satisfied with the existing Security Council, they have their legitimate right to propose changes."

                                 EUROPE

BRITAIN: "NATO Planes Watch Serbs"

The liberal Guardian said (10/19): "The large Russian presence in the 2,000 monitors was one of the factors making last week's deal with the OSCE acceptable to Mr. Milosevic, because it shows that this is not an exclusive NATO mission. Although often pilloried in the West as Yugoslavia's ally, the Russians have repeatedly said they find the destruction of villages by Yugoslav soldiers and Serb police excessive and unacceptable. They agree with the West's goals, but not with its method of threatening the use of force."

GERMANY: "Conflict Continues To Smolder"

D. Clement commented on national radio station Deutschlandfunk of Cologne (10/17): "What has been achieved could have been possible much earlier. NATO intensified its scenario of threats only to maintain its own credibility. Milosevic achieved all he could achieve on the battlefield, and by taking advantage of the various loopholes in the agreement, he will now try to keep as much as possible. A really sustainable solution acceptable to all sides involved, however, has so far not been found. The conflict continues to smolder."

"Vainly Satisfied"

Right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine noted in an editorial by Johann Georg Reissmueller (10/17): "It was clear from the onset that the West could not get Moscow's approval or even its restraint in the UNSC, especially since Russia considers a 'no' in the UNSC as evidence of the fact that it is still a superpower and a reliable ally.... It is evident that the West now wants to settle the conflict with talks, documents, signatures, unarmed observers, while the continuation of military threat only exists on paper."

ITALY: "Only A Postponement In Game With Milosevic"

Elena Ragusin in leading business Il Sole-24 Ore (10/18): "The ten-day extension of the ultimatum to Milosevic has averted a military intervention by the Atlantic Alliance which, however, remains with its finger on the trigger. And the response by the Serbian government seems to be going in the right direction.... For the time being, Milosevic seems to emerge strengthened from the crisis. He gave in to the requests of the international community...but maintains his power and is playing again the role of the 'big builder of peace' as during the days of the Dayton accord for Bosnia.... So, the game is over for now. But this is only a postponement, since the new test will be political agreements between Belgrade and Pristina to define the degree of autonomy of the Kosovo province.... By surrendering now, Milosevic has avoided a humanitarian catastrophe for the Kosovar Albanians and, de facto, with the deployment of OSCE observers, he has been able to achieve the end of military action by Albanian rebels."

"Suspended Between Impossible Peace And Unfeasible War"

Carlo Pelanda commented in provocative, classical liberal Il Foglio (10/17) that both the United States and Milosevic "bluffed" in their tug-of-war on Kosovo: "There was a compromise, but to the benefit of Milosevic.... He resisted for a while, but only to force the Americans to reveal what their real, vital interest is: to prevent CNN from showing American families the images of 250,000 Kosovar refugees and children freezing to death.... Kosovar Albanians will find refuge and the Americans will be able to turn their attention to other matters.... The deal strengthens Milosevic, and Serbian pressure on the Balkans along with him. The Americans, however, cannot commit themselves unilaterally to restoring peace to the region if the Europeans don't help them.... The regional scenario remains, therefore, suspended between an impossible peace and an unfeasible war."

RUSSIA: "Separatists Main Obstacle To Settlement"

Yuriy Pankov stated in centrist, army Krasnaya Zvezda (10/20): "The Albanian separatists and their intractable position, more than anything else, blight optimistic prospects for a settlement of the Kosovo crisis. We have yet to see the West react adequately to separatists' actions."

"Better Chance For Peace"

Dmitriy Gornostayev reported from Pristina for centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (10/17): "Prospects for a peaceful settlement of the Kosovo crisis seem to be improving, at least as far as a confrontation between NATO and the Yugoslav leadership goes. But the main problem--the possibility of the use of force on any suspicion--is still there."  "NATO's Biased"  Vitaliy Strugovets of centrist, army Krasnaya Zvezda (10/17) wrote: "NATO's exceedingly tilted approach to solving the crisis. All its criticisms are addressed to Belgrade. Only 'the federal center' is urged to make commitments and lay itself open to...inspections."

BELGIUM: "Paris Shuns NATO Action In Kosovo"

Mia Doornaert observed in independent Catholic De Standaard (10/20): "France's political leaders are certainly not the most ardent supporters of a possible NATO intervention in favor of Kosovo.... The French reserve is not based on an alleged 'historic friendship' with the Serbs or on an allergy against NATO. Like other members states of the Alliance, France has questions about the sense of a military action because such an intervention would only succeed when it is linked to a clear and unanimous political goal--which is lacking.... France does not want a wild proliferation of small, often ethnically mixed states because that will not enhance stability in Europe. Paris is not an admirer of U.S. President Woodrow Wilson, whose dogma of self-determination of the peoples saddled Europe with more revengeful minorities than ever after WW II. France does not stand alone with its concern about the proliferation of new states and thousands of kilometers of new borders. The Alliance wants respect for existing borders--so that (it does not want) an independent Kosovo and, even less, annexation of Kosovo by Albania. The sixteen NATO countries agree that NATO's pressure must be directed at stimulating a political solution between the Serbs and the ethnic Albanians within the Yugoslav framework.... The confusion over the political goal is not the only reason why France belongs to the series of countries with most reserve about a NATO intervention. Another consideration is that the Alliance is walking a slippery road when its starts meddling in an internal conflict of a state. A brief action will change nothing in an ethnic conflict which is basically a political one--not a military one....

"That kind of mission, Paris believes, belongs to the United Nations or the OSCE. The problem there is that respect for the international judicial framework is more or less the same as giving a free hand to Mr. Milosevic. Indeed, in both organizations, Russia--which itself buried the Chechens under a carpet of bombs and went unpunished--will refuse any sanctions against the Serbian brothers. In that case, the Kosovars will be left with the comfort that their dead and wounded tally nicely with the rules of the 'international community.'"

CANADA: "Kosovo Pot Still Boiling"

Matthew Fisher wrote from Moscow in the conservative Ottawa Sun (10/16): "People in the West are celebrating the Kosovo deal and the humbling of Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic; as usual, the celebrations come a little early.... Scanning Western news reports, there is a lot of unwarranted gloating over the deal Richard Holbrooke has struck with Serbia's Slobodan Milosevic.... The West closed its eyes when the Serbs stripped away the Albanian community's political autonomy and closed its schools in Kosovo in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Nor did it do much when the Albanians responded by mounting...a terrorist campaign to overthrow the government. When the Serbs fought back with predictable vengeance...using the same extreme methods perfected...in the Bosnia conflict, Madeleine Albright and Robin Cook vowed their behavior would not be tolerated. But it was. Seven months on, thousands in Kosovo have died and hundreds of thousands of refugees are waiting for Western-supplied food, medicine and shelter. Kosovo is nothing for anyone to be proud about."

"Where Does UN Intervene Next?"

In the liberal Toronto Star (10/16), Gordon Barthos wrote in his regular "Foreign Affairs" column: "Canada went to the brink of war this week in Kosovo, for what can only be described as a fuzzy principle.... People in Kosovo suffered terribly, to be sure. But was Kosovo's agony an...urgent priority?... Kosovo invites the Security Council to rethink the rules that guide its approach to getting involved. It will be harder, now, to shrug off the plight of people swept up in similar conflicts."

"Kosovo II: Nothing Is Settled, No One Is Saved"

London-based independent journalist and historian Gwynne Dyer wrote in the liberal Toronto Star (10/16): "So what we have is a temporary deal that saves everybody's face and gets everyone off the hook (except the Kosovars, of course). As Balkan historian Mark Almond put it, the West has pretended to thunder, and Belgrade has pretended to be struck by lightning. And Holbrooke has carved another notch in his toy pistol. But it will all come back to haunt us, six months or a year from now. Nothing is settled, and nobody in Kosovo has been saved."

POLAND: "No One Listens"

Jacek Potocki wrote in left-of-center Zycie Warszawy (10/17-18): "The Kosovar Albanians are talking about independence today, but Europe agrees only to a far-reaching autonomy within Serbia. The West does not want the emergence of a new state with Muslims to constitute its majority. The West is also afraid that the balance existing for several decades in the Balkans will be finally destroyed.... If only Milosevic guarantees that in his relations with Kosovo basic standards of human rights be observed, no one will lift a finger for the Albanians."

                               MIDDLE EAST

EGYPT: "Agreement Consecrates Status Quo"

Ahmed Bahgat asserted in pro-government Al-Ahram (10/18): "A letter to the editor said that the Kosovo agreement brokered by American envoy Holbrooke and Serbian war criminal Milosevic consecrates the status quo and drives thousands of refugees to escape. The Serbs and the West have one goal, namely to crush Bosnia and prevent the independence of Kosovo. The West kept delaying the use of force for seven months, until the agreement provided an outlet for them. It will give Clinton a political victory, strengthens Holbrooke's chances to be appointed as Ambassador to the UN, eliminates the embarrassment of European governments, and maintains horror among Muslim refugees so that they would not go back [to Kosovo]."

QATAR: "NATO Pretends To Be Objective Mediator"

An editorial in semi-independent Al-Watan held (10/18): "Events have proven that NATO pretends to play the role of powerful mediator, while in fact it secretly assures President Milosevic that it will not really be punished. The two sides are in agreement on preventing a new independent entity for the Muslims of Kosovo inside Christian Europe. The situation is not different where the Palestinian issue is concerned. The United States publicly plays the role of objective mediator while secretly supporting the Israeli side. This is why both Milosevic and Netanyahu behave as if they know the secret game and are fearless of any punishment, regardless of how far they cross the line."

                                EAST ASIA

JAPAN: "International Community Has To Keep Watch On Kosovo"

Conservative Sankei editorialized (10/18): "The Kosovo crisis...has been averted for the time being, thanks to special U.S. envoy Holbrooke's energetic reconciliation effort.... Neither the United Nations nor NATO, however, should become complacent about Milosevic's compromise.... [Milosevic's] pan-Serb nationalistic position, which calls for armed crackdowns against minority separatists, remains unchanged. If and when international concerns over the Kosovo problem diminishes with the passage of time, there is a strong possibility that Milosevic will resort to adventurism again..... NATO will have to use every means to prevent Milosevic from reneging on the Kosovo deal."

                               SOUTH ASIA

INDIA: "Kosovo Cauldron: NATO Gets Its Way"

K. Subrahmanyam wrote in the pro-economic-reforms Economic Times (10/19): "It is very difficult to defend all the actions of the Serbian authorities which resulted in displacement of some 25,000 refugees, mostly Kosovars of Albanian ethnic origin. At the same time the action of the United States and NATO raises a number of very disturbing issues.... There has to be some credible explanation why the United States and NATO have threatened to take such extreme action only in respect of Kosavar refugees and have not bothered to attend to similar sufferings of refugees, even in larger numbers when they were displaced in Cyprus, Lebanon, Turkish Kurdistan, and the Great Lakes region of Africa."

                             LATIN AMERICA

ARGENTINA: "Kosovo's Uncertain Destiny"  An editorial in leading Clarin read (10/19): "At the last minute and already on the countdown, the United States managed to get from the Serbian government a sort of agreement regarding Kosovo, which maintains a military intervention in suspense.... NATO had finally decided to launch a military operation against Serbia to stop the killing of Albanians in Kosovo. The Western countries did not get Russia's agreement on the operation neither did they get the support of the UN Security Council: therefore, the intervention could have set the basis for bigger conflicts. The crisis in Kosovo implied a dilemma for the European countries and for the United States.... Kosovo is a small province having an Albanian and Muslim majority; it belongs to Serbia and borders with Albania and Macedonia. The elimination of its autonomy and the anarchy in Albania led to the formation of an independent militia and, as a reaction to this, the Serbian government answered with a ferocious repression after which 'an ethnical cleansing' was again unleashed which revived the worst moments suffered by the Bosnian civil population.... The situation of the two million Albanians living in Serbia became an international affair for humanitarian and geopolitical reasons.

"But, on the other hand, Serbia is the only state power extended in the area which maintains a minimal balance to guarantee any scheme of peace or reconstruction of the countries sharing territories and populations in the Balkans. Attacking Serbia could well extend the ripping of the region in endless struggles for the preeminence of confronted nationalistic groups.... Two thousand international observers have now the mission of preserving the life of Albanian-Kosovars and of contributing to the peace in the region. Meanwhile, the Serbian government keeps on simultaneously showing itself--as it did in Bosnia--as the main responsible for war and peace in the Balkans."

CUBA: "Objective For Imperialist Meddling: Eliminating The Social Revolution"

Communist Party Granma held (10/17): "If we look for the roots of this situation, it is clear that, after decades of peaceful cohabitation, suddenly the Albanian separatists denounced what they called 'cruel Serbian oppression' in Kosovo, organized armed bands in that part of Yugoslavia, and instigated bloody confrontations, hoping the whole time to do what was necessary to bring about the intervention, as announced, by NATO military forces. The apparent objective for this imperialist meddling in the Balkans is to eliminate the social revolution. If they exacerbate Albanian nationalism in Kosovo, they can then justify an occupation by NATO international forces--with the path smoothed by threats of missile attacks--under the pretext of searching for peace in the region. The American imperialists won't give up the idea of domination of the southern Balkans...just as Germany has its eye on the north.... That is to say, it seems that the Western capitalist powers will not be stopped from their intent to achieve the greater disintegration of Yugoslavia."

PERU: "Kosovo And The Middle East And U.S. Pressure"

Reliable-business Gestion commented (10/18): "For some time, it was feared that the United States would not address the most serious international problems because the White House was distracted by President Clinton's political problems. But the recent progress on two crucial fronts--the Balkans and the Middle East--calm this fear, although it cannot be said yet that the problems in these regions will soon be solved. In any case, the reaffirmation of U.S. leadership is so important that it cannot be ignored. The European and U.S.' armed operation should remain as a threat until the Kosovo crisis is solved. Thus, Washington is right to continue to doubt Milosevic's word and to pressure him. In both the Middle East and the Kosovo cases, we are still in a very preliminary phase, and in no way near an immediate solution. The agreements to be reached and U.S. pressure will tell us what we can expect in each case."

VENEZUELA: "Not An Easy Process"

Influential, liberal El Nacional observed (10/19): "Up until now, the Atlantic Alliance has been successful (in its dealings with Milosevic). Where Europe and the developed world in general have failed is in humanitarian assistance that the people of the region need as much as they need peace and the security to return to their homes--or what's left of them. The process that begins now isn't an easy one.... Belgrade believes that the government autonomy statute should apply, but inside the Serbian Republic. Kosovo has something else in mind: Independence. These antagonistic positions will make it difficult to reach an agreement. A three-year period of autonomy is forecast, time necessary for the complex negotiations.... With Milosevic's acceptance of the terms, the process can go forward, and the enormous risk of brutal military operations can be eliminated. Pushing for a peaceful solution is the right thing to do, but that will take time. Let's hope the suppressed newspapers of Belgrade will be allowed to circulate freely--and not be treated the way the people of Kosovo have been."

For more information, please contact:

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Telephone: (202) 619-4355

10/20/98

October 16, 1998

 HOLBROOKE-MILOSEVIC AGREEMENT: A STEP FORWARD OR A 'NEW MUNICH?'

The Holbrooke-Milosevic agreement on Kosovo continued to attract intense media attention overseas, with commentators proffering assessments about the merits of the deal and its prospects for success. Opinion was divided between a considerable number of observers who viewed the deal as a positive step forward, and an increasing number of editorialists who found in the agreement little to praise and much to criticize. More broadly, a number of opinion-makers also dwelled on the implications of the agreement and related NATO threats to use air strikes. There was widespread consensus that these events represented a major change in international diplomacy. Some analysts praised this apparent development, arguing that, henceforth, humanitarian intervention can be considered an accepted norm of international relations and that NATO has begun to function as an effective instrument of peace. Russian pundits and a number of others in press around the world were much more critical, contending that any NATO-backed intervention--especially if unaccompanied by a UN resolution--would be unprecedented and illegitimate, and is reminiscent of "gunboat diplomacy." They also held that an intervention strategy was a risky venture that could escalate the crisis and ignite a protracted war in the middle of Europe. Following are commentary highlights:

A STEP FORWARD: Supporters of the pact viewed it as promising to avert a pending humanitarian catastrophe in Kosovo, helping to stabilize the situation and serving as a first step toward subsequent negotiations that can bring a lasting solution to Kosovo's problems. Significantly, even proponents perceived potential weaknesses in the agreement, stressing that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's compliance cannot be taken for granted and that the best deterrence to Belgrade's backsliding remains the threat of NATO air strikes. Some media voices pointed out that the deal brokered by Mr. Holbrooke was perhaps the best one that could be made under difficult circumstances. London's independent weekly Economist asserted, for example: "The deal...is an easy one to criticize.... But, despite all [its] flaws, it is better to have this agreement than not to have it, and better to have it before rather than after air strikes.... Above all, the deal provides a breathing space in which an international effort to stop people dying of cold and hunger can be launched." Several pundits expressed admiration for U.S. special envoy Holbrooke's diplomatic skills and energy, noting that, without him, the deal with Mr. Milosevic would not have come about.

A NEW 'MUNICH'?: Critics of the deal determined that there were too many uncertainties and too many opportunities for failure in the agreement. They claimed that, based on President Milosevic's past record, he would likely break his promises, and that it was far from certain that NATO would be able to maintain its resolve to take military action. Others took issue with the agreement itself, noting that it did not ameliorate any of the root causes of the crisis in Kosovo and did not include a procedure for determining the future status of the province. Many judged that, at best, the pact only defers the day of reckoning. The most pessimistic assessments held that, once again, the international community had chosen appeasement as an answer to aggression.

This survey is based on 67 reports from 29 countries, October 13-16.

EDITOR: Diana McCaffrey

                          FORMER YUGOSLAVIA

SERBIA-MONTENEGRO: "A Statesman With Courage"

Major, pro-government Politika (10/15) devoted page after page to coverage of the positive reactions and messages of support sent to President Milosevic by political parties, associations, companies, and citizens. An example follows: "The agreement on the resolution of the Kosovo crisis by peaceful and political means...and the statement by President Milosevic...have received full support throughout the country from citizens, political parties, and companies because of victory of the peaceful option means the retention of the sovereignty and integrity of our country.... It is doubtless our historic victory, a victory for the forces of freedom against the forces of blackmail, ultimatums, threats of bombing, and war.... We were sure you would defend the truth and dignity of our country.... We never doubted the statesmanship and the political ability and the wisdom of our president. He is responsible for averting a military catastrophe at the beginning of the 21st century."

"An Episode Without Consequences"

Stojan Cerovic observed in independent Nasa Borba (10/15): "I am afraid that there will be no peace in Kosovo. The verifiers, which Milosevic accepted under the utmost pressure, will in reality help him preserve the status quo. He has already completed his part of the war, and now this international mission will be able to report mostly on the actions by and the violence of the remaining Albanian desperados."

FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA: "Questions"

Zlatko Pizevski held in centrist, opposition Dnevnik (10/14): "NATO is just a step away from military intervention in FRY. The initiators of such interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state were the United States, the UK and Germany. According to the Germans, the intervention in FRY should stop the humanitarian catastrophe, which will be only worsened with the coming of winter. The question is, why did they keep silent all the time and watch the Serb offensive proceed? Or, is it the fact that some of the internally displaced persons might seek sanctuary from the humanitarian catastrophe in Germany. Serbia has no possibility to point their military power--which is not to be underestimated--to Germany, but they might act in Kosovo, which is so available for such a retaliatory action. As is Albania."

SLOVENIA: "Likely Milosevic Has No Intention Of Complying"

Left-of-center Delo opined (10/15): "[It is likely that] Milosevic has no intention of complying with the agreement...he has signed. He can count on 'cooperation' of the Albanians and their political leaders.... Besides this, U. S. Ambassador to Macedonia Christopher Hill, who is supposed to continue Holbrooke's work in the field, is not an authority big enough to talk the political leaders of the Kosovo Albanians into negotiating the 'dirty details' of autonomy.... Although the agreement between Milosevic and Holbrooke seems above all hard for the Serbs, it requires as much self-denial from the Kosovo Albanians.... Holbrooke himself will most probably have to deal with the Albanian radicalization, distrust, and lack of political control over the Kosovo Liberation Army. How can he force them and what can he offer them?"

"Belgrade Nero"

Left-of-center, independent Dnevnik commented (10/15): "The best circus artists would be proud of the salto mortale performed once again by Milosevic.... Nevertheless, like every magical trick, the Serbian one is also of limited duration. The Serbian people believe--and will continue to believe for some time--that NATO, imperialism... and the Vatican are responsible for (their present situation).

"The rest of the world has realized--very slowly, but nevertheless--that this is illusionism of a man who makes strategic rather than tactical mistakes. This does not solve the problem because Milosevic belongs among those leaders who called a horse a senator, burned down a city while playing music, ate their courtiers and people, and established a new church in order to get remarried. The Kosovo story is not over yet; not because there is no solution, but because there is no one to talk to. Besides the Belgrade Nero, (the international community) can talk to Vuk Draskovic, who would like to be--dressed in a national costume--a Chetnik, a socialist, a western intellectual, and a writer at the same time; or to Zoran Dindic, who would like to be a Serbian intellectual with European pedigree, a Chetnik with social connotation, and a nationalist, without wearing the national footwear."

BRITAIN: "Fingers Crossed"

The conservative Times had this lead editorial (10/16): "In their very imprecision, the contours of the Kosovo plan are depressingly all too clear, and too familiar. Despite statements to the contrary, Slobodan Milosevic...has again been taken at his word.... NATO's activation order is still in force and could in theory trigger air strikes by tomorrow. But although NATO intelligence insists that there is no evidence of 'substantial compliance' with the ultimatum to withdraw Serb troops and special forces by tomorrow, and the White House agrees with NATO, the U.S. State Department is transparently anxious to declare victory and go home.... The one thing that has assuredly been bought is time...to try for the political settlement for Kosovo that Mr. Milosevic will never willingly negotiate."

"A Victory For Despots?"

The independent weekly Economist asserted (10/16): "The deal that has hauled NATO back from the brink of war...is an easy one to criticize. Not only does it fail to determine the future status of Kosovo, but it does not even include an agreed procedure for settling that issue at some future date.... Nor is the deal certain to stop either the fighting or the looming humanitarian disaster.... And the scope for disagreement between the OSCE and NATO, or between America and Europe, is huge.... But, despite all these flaws, it is better to have this agreement than not to have it, and better to have it before rather than after air strikes. Attacking a sovereign state is not something that should be done lightly. Above all, the deal provides a breathing space in which an international effort to stop people dying of cold and hunger can be launched."

"This Won't Stop The Serbs"

The liberal Guardian opined (10/16): "This week's deal will bring a pause in Serb hostilities, but it will not bring peace.... In Bosnia, after Dayton, there were 30,000 NATO-led troops on the ground and a political settlement. In Kosovo there are no troops and no settlement or prospect of one. The observers are going in unarmed, dependent on moral authority and the goodwill of the population. There has already been a humanitarian catastrophe. The best it will do is alleviate the consequences temporarily. Will it end Serb oppression in Kosovo? Not a chance."

GERMANY: "Holbrooke's Mission"

W. Gerlach commented on regional radio station Bayerischer Rundfunk of Munich (10/15): "The most serious shortcoming of the agreement between Richard Holbrooke and Slobodan Milosevic is the fact that not enough has been done for the security of the 2,000 OSCE monitors who could quickly get caught between the political and military fire in the region.

"This is why it is necessary to take additional and important measures such as deploying a rapid reaction force in the immediate neighborhood and demonstratively maintaining NATO's activation order."

"Next Moves"

Hans-Juergen Haller commented on regional radio station Hessischer Rundfunk of Frankfurt (10/14): "The crisis in Kosovo, whatever the outcome, will force us to answer the worrying question of whether or not it is indeed inhumane and immoral not to be willing to use armed force. Not carelessly, not frivolously, and not arrogantly, but without any illusions. Not to conquer, not to intimidate but rather to ensure that human rights are respected in other countries."

"Is Sigh Of Relief Warranted?"

Centrist Mitteldeutsche Zeitung of Halle wondered (10/15): "The decisive question now is whether it was really appropriate to heave a sigh of relief about the negotiating success of Richard Holbrooke. Doubts are justified. In two respects, Milosevic can view himself as the winner. First, because he is presenting himself as the strong man in Serbia after having crushed the opposition movement, and second, because he has lost nothing in the Kosovo conflict. His special units and his army have accomplished their destructive mission.... We can also imagine that Milosevic is continuing to play for time--until the political will of NATO for military intervention wanes."

ITALY: "U.S. Mediator Played A Daring Game"

Stefano Cingolani reported from Paris in centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera (10/16): "Playing a daring game, the U.S. mediator managed to concede something to everybody, without really surrendering to anybody. But all of this is not enough: a new UN resolution is now necessary to legitimize the agreement and force all signatories to respect it.... The Kosovo Liberation Army believes it's all a cheat.... And even in the United States, there is no agreement over Holbrooke's achievements. Congress, for example, is much more inclined to help Kosovar independence groups."

"Our Own Saddam"

An editorial in leading, centrist newsweekly Panorama wondered (10/16): "What is the difference between Milosevic and Saddam Hussein? None.... Yet...Milosevic...lives and operates in our backyard. Therefore, he is a threat to Europe's stability.... That is why stronger determination on the part of the European nations...would have been necessary when the time came to threaten the use of force towards the Belgrade dictator. Instead, American diplomats had to intervene once again.... But nobody should fool himself that the Milosevic case has been resolved. The Milosevic-Holbrooke deal...is not peace and is not ethnic reconciliation. It is only a cease-fire...to prevent an international crisis with unpredictable consequences right at the time when the U.S. leadership appears very weak and financial turbulence is out of control."

"International Community Remains In State Of Alert"

Left-leaning, influential La Repubblica stressed (10/15): "Nobody trusts Milosevic.... The doubt remains that Milosevic is once again bluffing with the international diplomacy.... The international community remains in a state of alert."

"NATO Keeps Its Finger On The Trigger"

Ennio Caretto noted in centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera (10/15): "NATO...keeps its finger on the trigger as the OSCE begins preparations to verify the Belgrade agreement on Kosovo....But Holbrooke seemed to be confident in the 'diplomacy of missiles'.... Cruise missiles seem to be the real sword of Damocles over Milosevic's head. A threat which proved decisive each time America decided to use it."

"Holbrooke Wins In Kosovo, But Everybody Claims Credit"

Provocative, classical liberal Il Foglio stressed (10/15): "It should be clear to everybody that only the United States is (and will be) in a position to scare Milosevic. NATO and Europe are formally respected, but are substantially...considered to be a nuisance.... Belgrade is more familiar territory for the American mediator than it is for many European diplomats."

RUSSIA: "NATO's Balancing Act"

Yelena Aleksandrova filed for official parliamentary Parlamentskaya Gazeta (10/16): "NATO is balancing on the edge of its sword. Bombing Yugoslavia would be in contravention of all international norms. More than that, it would ruin the entire system of international relations based on the UN Charter, the Helsinki Act, and the OSCE principles. Any country or several countries, acting on their own, would then be able to start a war in any region which they consider their sphere of influence."

"Double Standard, Gunboat Policy"

Reformist, business-oriented weekly VEK (10/16) front-paged this comment by Yury Tyssovsky: "The world is entering the 21st century, caught in a tangle of double standards and gunboat politics. It's biggies like the United States and NATO that think they can use those to secure their interests in the international arena. They and the UN have obviously wracked their brains, trying to find a 'legitimate' rationale for armed intervention in the affairs of a sovereign state. NATO and the United States virtually encourage separatism in the center of Europe, and, in doing so, they constantly violate the UN Charter and the basic principles of international law."

"NATO Supersedes UN, OSCE"

According to Anatoliy Anisimov in official government Rossiyskaya Gazeta (10/15): "The United Nations does not want to quarrel with its host country, so a spokesperson for its European office was incoherent on whether NATO's decision to use force against a sovereign state without the approval of the UN Security Council was a violation of the UN Charter. In fact, NATO has willfully superseded the UN and OSCE."

ALBANIA: "West Has Not Calculated Correctly"

Mass-circulation, centrist Shekulli contended (10./14): "We saw once again how the West took its finger off the button without getting a convincing promise from Milosevic. Now Milosevic can boast before his people that he avoided the war. It cannot be said this was farsighted diplomacy by Western chancelleries, which were influenced in the end by internal divisions and by Russia's threats to invalidate its agreements with NATO. In this way, the essence of the problem was neglected once again. The first reactions of the Albanians are unhappy, exactly because of this point--the lack of clear guarantees by Belgrade on the future status of Kosovo. The new plan is designed to lift the crisis away from its current ''zero point,' but the lack of a clear statement about Kosovo's future status deprives the plan of its very essence. And this, in the poisoned environment of the Balkans, is of an importance which the West seemingly has not yet calculated correctly."

"Agreement--Like Early Winter"

Top-circulation, mildly sensationalist Koha Jone held (10/14): "The Serbs seem satisfied with the agreement: It proved Serbia's determination to defend its territorial integrity and sovereignty. The fear of the NATO planes faded away and the belief that NATO only talks was reemphasized. And once again the Serb leader came out as an indispensable partner for international agreements. To the Albanians, the agreement is like an early winter. According to international analysts the agreement only puts the problem of Kosovo off until later, and has little probability of solving it. The only measure left is air attack, but the Serbs have gotten used to that threat and the Albanians can no longer trust NATO. That my children will not die under Serbia, but NATO is not strong enough to be convincing.''

"Albanians Treated As A Beaten People"

On its front page, medium-circulation, sensationalist, pro-opposition Albania opined (10/14): "What the international community asked Milosevic to do--pull the troops out of Kosovo--is formal and meaningless because it fails to afford the minimal conditions for the stabilization of the situation: the return of hundreds of thousands of Albanians. The principal problem is whether the international community will destroy the roots of the conflict or will merely try to keep their effects under control. In order to resolve the conflict, Belgrade should be removed as a factor, and that cannot be done by treating it as a partner while treating the Albanians as victims. Belgade should instead be considered an aggressor and the Albanians victims of their loyalty to Western principles. From the military viewpoint, Belgrade's removal as a factor can be achieved if NATO's plan for military intervention is carried out. The intervention would bring civil peace in Kosovo and make the Dayton agreement for Bosnia work, since Belgrade is its main obstacle. Belgrade's removal as a factor should start today, in order to symbolically state that no one is willing to talk about projects of Serb nationalism, which are spurring other nationalistic feelings elsewhere. Kosovo will find peace only if the Serbs and Serbia are deprived of the right to determine the fate of another people."

"Kosovo--Hostage Of Holbrooke's Career?"

Centrist, mass-circulation, Albanian/Italian-language Gazeta Shqiptare commented on page one (10/14): "The agreement of the well-known couple Holbrooke and Milosevic cannot be a condolence to hundreds of thousands of killed and displaced Albanians. NATO's withdrawal showed that the threat was more about the Alliance's image than about finding a final solution to the Kosovo tragedy. This latest agreement is closely linked to Milosevic's political fate, but perhaps even more with Holbrooke's diplomatic career. Meanwhile, the thousands of Albanians in the mountains are forced to wait for the umpteenth time to see if Milosevic will keep his promise. Milosevic considers the agreement a way to avoid armed attack, not the solution to the Kosovo crisis."

"'Saddam Of The Balkans Remains The Same"

Small-circulation, opposition Democratic Party daily Rilindja held (10/14): "It seems that NATO's threats were finally taken quasi-seriously by the Balkan dictator who promised that he 'agrees to implement the resolution'. But meanwhile, this is his most disgusting alibi. It is quite impossible that the Saddam of the Balkans became an angel within 96 hours and can convince internal opinion--specifically the Kosovo Albanians--that he has changed and he will not bomb them on their way home. The Albanians naturally have the right to be skeptical and not believe in the change of this man who for the sake of his own power ordered the murder of hundreds of innocent Albanians...because they were 'terrorists.'

"Even at the international level, Milosevic's promise can be read as pure hypocrisy, because it is the same Milosevic who through the ultra-nationalist Seselj closed the mouth of electronic media so they could not relay the 'subversion' of foreign radio stations which 'destabilize' Yugoslavia. Milosevic, as he has demonstrated, understands only the language of force. He understands only when 'the rope is around his neck'. Another 96 hours. Another 96 minutes.... He remains the same, Milosevic and nobody else."

"Falling Into The Serb Trap"

Medium-circulation, Republican Party daily Republika held in a front page editorial (10/14): "European diplomacy fell into the Serb trap. The Holbrooke-Milosevic agreement on implementation of the UN resolution should not stop NATO's initiative for intervention. It is precisely NATO's pressure that made such an agreement possible. The international community which has witnessed Yugoslavia's death must understand once and for all that the Serbs and the Albanians cannot live in a state ruled by Serb cynicism. Kosovo's people have expressed their determination for independence and their objectives do not harm the interests of other countries and peoples. NATO's non-intervention and the international community's non-recognition of Kosovo's independence would be direct concessions to Milosevic for the continuation of violence. It should be understood that compromise is impossible with the Serbs and that the only solution is the Dayton formula, which would give the Albanians the space to exercise their national rights."

AUSTRIA: "It Was The Americans Who Brought About Decisive Change"

Andreas Schwarz commented in prestigious, conservative Die Presse (10/15): "Once again it was the Americans who brought about the decisive change.... Only when the United States did not want to watch all this any longer, the Europeans brought themselves to show some determination.... It is all the more important now that there is not the slightest crack in the unity of the West over the next days, weeks, and months. The most decisive questions concerning the political future of Kosovo...are yet to be solved.... This is only the beginning of a solution to the Kosovo crisis."

"Not Only Milosevic, But Also NATO Saved Skin..."

Josef Kirchengast opined in liberal Der Standard (10/15): "There was no doubt that the threat of a military strike was meant seriously. The internal differences about the legitimacy of an armed operation according to international law, however, were all too obvious, and concealed only by the determined leadership of the United States. First of all, it is now up to the European partners in the Alliance to draft a political, economic--and, of course, military--peace concept for the entire Balkans region. And this is, as Americans rightly say, a purely European problem. If Europe fails another time in this respect, NATO--the foundation of the European security system--will not remain undamaged either."

"Efficient NATO Threat"

In tabloid Neue Kronenzeitung (10/15), Kurt Seinitz called the Kosovo agreement with Milosevic "the maximum that has ever been squeezed out of him. And this was only possible thanks to the NATO threat. NATO acted in a reserved, but responsible way and proved that it is the most efficient peace instrument of the world today."

"Tribute To Holbrooke"

Livia Klingl obsreved in mass-circulation Kurier (10/15): "We tip our hat to the American. Holbrooke, America's most undiplomatic diplomat, who performed--with NATO support and the EU as a small assessor--a great feat....

"Milosevic gives up, before bombs have to be dropped on Belgrade. May Holbrooke's success be a lesson for all those who still believe that outlaws can be confronted by UN laws alone."

BELGIUM: "Compromise, While Not Perfect, Should Not Be Torpedoed"

In independent Le Soir, Edouard Van Velthem observed (10/16): "[U.S. envoy Holbrooke's] agreement, of course, is not perfect. The most determined people will argue that 'good' strikes are preferable to bad concessions. The most indignant will deplore this additional respite...granted to Mr. Milosevic.... The most skeptical will wonder about the details of the future course of events.... [But] it is no one's interest to torpedo this still temporary outcome to the crisis. It heralds perhaps a new era of summit negotiations which...has already termed 'gunpoint diplomacy.' It demonstrates at least the efficiency of a political action conducted swiftly, based on a coherent strategy, supported by precise objectives and held at arms' length by the prospect of a possible resort to force. It prevents the Western experts from being confronted with the quagmire of the...legal justification of a ground intervention on the territory of a sovereign state."

CANADA: "Kosovo Deal Demonstrates Adroitness"

In his regular "Home and Away" column in the liberal Toronto Star, Richard Gwyn held (10/14): "United States envoy Richard Holbrooke's achievement in persuading Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic to withdraw his troops from the province of Kosovo is the politico-military equivalent of convincing a camel to slip through the eye of a needle. "Not just a cantankerous camel that's likely to balk and refuse to budge, but a rabid beast well able to bite and buck and kick.... [I]ndependence for Kosovo, which is the objective of almost all of the Albanians there, would have unhinged much of the Balkans.... "By far the most diplomatically troubling consequence of this kind of unravelling--for Holbrooke personally as well as for the West in general--is that...independence by Kosovo would justify logically the parallel break-up of Bosnia.... "The agreement...creates the hope that that eventual break-up [of Kosovo from Serbia] will now happen peacefully (more or less).... This week, the Nobel Committee will announce the 1997-98 peace prize. Next year, if the ceasefire holds in Kosovo as it has done so far in Bosnia despite all the pessimists, there's little doubt that Holbrooke will be, certainly should be, the winner."

"Softening Up Serbia"

The mid-market Ottawa Citizen opined (10/15): "Probably no one but our federal government thinks Canada is an important player in the nasty crisis that has pitted Serbia against the recalcitrant province of Kosovo. Yet there was Foreign Minister Lloyd Axworthy on Tuesday, explaining, though not in so many words, that the Balkan debacle is a good test case for his theories on 'soft power' and 'human security.'... We are not convinced that all the international institutions in the world will bring Mr. Milosevic to heel over the long term. And, in the meantime, the pact everyone seems so pleased with contains serious problems.... Perhaps Mr. Axworthy and his ilk can claim that peace with Mr. Milosevic has avoided the larger cataclysm of a major war in the Balkans. But they may only have postponed it.... If the Alliance stands down on Friday as originally planned, it may be that much more difficult to muster its determination in future. In that case, Mr. Milosevic wins. Like Saddam Hussein, he learns that, in the matter of staring down the West, simple postponement of confrontation goes a long way. And the champions of soft diplomacy will be left facing hard questions indeed."

"Kosovo Agreement A Munich In Minature"

In the conservative Ottawa Sun (10/15), Eric Margolis maintained: "Peace in our time! If you ever wondered why Europe failed to stand up to Hitler's aggression, just look at Tuesday's agreement over Kosovo between NATO and Serbia's Slobodan Milosevic.  "Like Munich and Bosnia, this was a cynical sellout, disguised as peace.... The Kosovo Liberation Army will resume battling Serb occuaption forces. Ironically, NATO may end up bombing Albanian guerrillas. This latest Balkan sellout has bought wily Milosevic some time. Still, after more fighting, Kosovo's eventual independence seems inevitable."

"Agreement With Milosevic A Stop-Gap"

Harry Sterling commented in the business-oriented Financial Post (10/14): "Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic has finally blinked.... [H]e has agreed to withdraw Serbian security forces from Kosovo and allow a...foreign verification force to be stationed in Serbia's strife-torn ethnic Albanian province. While the bloodletting in Kosovo may soon be over, the prospects for reaching a viable long-term agreement on its future is far from encouraging.... As Bosnia has shown, the presence of 30,000 peacekeepers, 1,300 of them Canadian, is the price the international community has to pay in Bosnia to prevent another bloodbath there. But can even peacekeepers keep the lid on the unpredictable forces festering in Kosovo?"

DENMARK: "UN Resolution 1199"

Center-Right Weekendavisen's editorial opined (10/16): "The only way to pacify a minority like the Kosovo Albanians is to give them autonomy. As time goes by, autonomy will provide them with good experiences and therefore confidence in the future within a state, where their homelands have been created more or less by chance through centuries of war, border revisions and migrations. This we know from experience in Western Europe and this is why the Council of Europe, the OSCE and other organizations based in Western Europe recommend autonomy. Such problems cannot be solved through violence."

"Success Of Agreement Depends On NATO's Readiness To Strike"

Mass-circulation tabloid B.T. editorialized (10/15): "The success of the agreement depends on NATO being ready to strike within a matter of hours. In Europe as a whole, we will have to get used to the idea that we are still in a wartime situation.... In reality we have not ended the crisis in Kosovo, or in Bosnia for that matter. This will not happen before Serbia rids itself of the Milosevic regime. In the meantime, the rest of the world must ensure that Milosevic is not allowed to fill more mass graves."

HUNGARY: "Kosovo Lessons"

Pro-government Hungarian daily Magyar Nemzet lamented (10/16): "The crisis and its temporary settlement strengthens the views that the post-World War II world order has changed definitively. A few years ago it would have been inconceivable that the superpowers, first of all the United States and the Soviet Union (that is, Russia), would not attempt to solve a similar crisis with joint forces. The Kosovo crisis is the first example that the United States, or NATO, would have acted in spite of the fact that Russia was definitely opposed to such a military intervention. There are some lessons for Hungary, too. The leadership had to reach a decision while under double pressure: it had to weigh the obligations of our imminent, de facto membership in NATO on one hand, and the justified fears of Hungarian citizens and ethnic Hungarians in Vojvodina on the other. In spite of the natural controversy and reservations, most of the parliamentary parties displayed a sober attitude and approved the government's proposal. From now on, Hungarian political and military leaders, as well as the public must reckon with the fact that similar challenges - stemming from membership in NATO - will occur even more frequently in the future."

"The True Stake"

Endre Aczel wrote in top-circulation Nepszabadsag (10/15): "I find it unthinkable that a Yugoslavia doomed to a pariah's fate, shut out from all international organizations, deprived of the resources that might serve as the foundation for their economic re-structuring, would be a willing cooperative partner to comply with any resolutions. On the contrary: I think the more steps are made to welcome Yugoslavia back in the family of European nations, in order to emancipate what remains of this broken country, the more generous Belgrade will be in honoring bargains accepted by, or forced upon, it." "If the international community fails to try emancipating this country, 'Trianon-type' grievances will live on and grow among the Serbs. Helping such a process is the most Hungary could do for the 300,000 ethnic Hungarians in Yugoslavia."

KAZAKSTAN: "Only Russia Supports Milosevic"

Official, Kazakh-language Yegemen Kazakhstan (10/13) concluded that "only Russia supports Milosevic. And if there hadn't been such a support he would have followed the international community's decision.... The decision of the UN is fair. But Serbians don't want to fulfill it."

THE NETHERLANDS: "No Reason For Too Much Optimism"

Centrist Haagsche Courant asserted (10/15): "The NATO threats had some impact. However, there is no reason for too much optimism. Even though the immediate threat of a war has been diverted, the political crisis about the status of Kosovo is still on the table. Holbrooke has a lot of work to do in the Balkans."

"Victory For NATO (And Milosevic)"

Independent Het Financieele Dagblad commented (10/15): "The Holbrooke/Milosevic Accord is a victory for NATO, because Milosevic gave in. However, the Accord is also a victory for Milosevic for it allowed him to strengthen his position as leader of Serbia.... The fact that both NATO and Milosevic can claim victory is because they share a goal: keeping Kosovo within the Yugoslav borders without a NATO-Yugloslav war."

POLAND: "A Parable Of The Good And The Bad"

Krystyna Szelestowska wrote in leftist Trybuna (10/15): "President Milosevic decided to make significant concessions when he assured his readiness to comply with the UN resolution. Meanwhile, the spokesperson for the Kosovo Liberation Army hastily rejected the proposal to give this province far-reaching autonomy. He said plainly that the KLA will never accept it [autonomy] and it will demand self-determination for Kosovo, which means independence. This statement was somehow missed by the politicians who focused all their expectations on Belgrade and Yugoslavia's commitments. What if Belgrade--of its own good will or under pressure--will carry out its obligations, while the other side of the conflict will continue using power, killing the Serbs, and using violence?... False is this generally publicized assumption that the Yugoslav president is ultimately evil, whereas the KLA and Albanian extremists are okay--unless the United States and the West silently support the proclamation of independence for Kosovo and a further break-up of Yugoslavia."

PORTUGAL: "Bellicose Adventures"

Luis Delgado wrote in centrist Diario de Noticias (10/13): "Quietly, almost without anybody noticing, President Clinton pushes NATO allies toward a bellicose adventure in Kosovo. Portugal, without political and strategic justification, is in the first rank of those who want war. The American president is not in the right condition to evaluate the risks of this operation.

"He is not worried about the drama of refugees in Kosovo; he lives wrapped up in a `marketing' campaign to reconstruct his external and internal credibility. Kosovo is not Bosnia, and a military intervention against Bosnian Serbs is not the same thing, nor does it carry the same consequences, as an attack against a sovereign state. To be efficient, NATO has to strike at vital strategic objectives in Yugoslavia, and that means an open war at the center of Europe. The political climate in Moscow is very different from that of three years ago. In case of war, Moscow supports Belgrade. It is total craziness. And this is what Portugal wants to get involved in?"

"Corruption And Kosovo"

Luis Delgado, contributed this commentary to centrist Diario de Noticias (10/14): "To the immense sadness of Mr. Clinton, who got stuck without a war, Milosevic gave in to the requests of Mr. Holbrooke. Assuming that the Belgrade accord will be fulfilled, NATO will avoid crossing the tenuous frontier between an inevitable and justifiable military action and a bellicose adventure with neither an end nor an objective in sight. It was, alas, in response to the same principle that the United States got involved in Somalia, and the result was a military disaster for forces from various countries. And that intervention solved, at least, the Somalian tragedy? Not even the shadow of it."

SPAIN: "Milosevic Continues On His Fascist Path"

Independent El Mundo remarked (10/15): "If there were any doubt about the true colors of Slobodan Milosevic's regime, the Serbian government has now closed two independent newspapers.... Milosevic has been irritated by their coverage of the Kosovo crisis for which reason he has accused the papers of 'spreading panic' in the face of a possible NATO attack. But the only panic that is being spread throughout Europe these days is being caused by the Serbian regime with its campaign of ethnic cleansing in Kosovo. The owner of one of the closed dailies has warned that Milosevic will lead Serbia 'into dictatorship and totalitarianism.' Perhaps NATO will slow him down in the next few days."

"Waging War Against History"

Juan Pedro Quinonero commented in conservative ABC (10/15): "It is no small task that the North Atlantic community has set for itself in attempting to extirpate crime, terror and ethnic cleansing in a region where several fragile countries search for stability in the wake of the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire, the destruction of its Austro-Hungarian successor, and the collapse of communist Yugoslavia which followed.... The war in Bosnia left many dead buried on the former frontier between Rome and Byzantium, where Turkish and Christian galleons fought the naval battle of Lepanto, and where WWI began [with an assassination] in Sarajevo.... Can pressure applied by NATO under the transatlantic guidance of a president under investigation for perjury overcome all this history which dates from the separation of the eastern church from Rome and the Muslim assault on Vienna?"

                          EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

CHINA: "How Did Kosovo Cool Off?"

Yuan Bingzhong commented in the official Beijing Municipal Beijing Daily (Beijing Ribao, 10/15): "The real reason for the relaxation in the Kosovo crisis is that neither the Yugoslav Federation nor the United States wants to see military action. The use of force against Yugoslavia is not the best choice for the United States. A weak basis of the legality of military action might earn the U.S. condemnation from the international community.... Secondly, if Russia enters into the possible military conflict...its relation with the West will regress drastically and a new 'Cold War' is possible. Such an outcome is not in line with American interests."

AUSTRALIA: "Armed, And Still Dangerous"

The liberal Sydney Morning Herald observed (10/15): "Mr. Milosevic is an opportunist with a sharp ear for the empty threat and a keen eye for vacillation. Over the past few years the international community has supplied both in abundance when it comes to the Balkans. On this occasion a military clash was imminent. Even so, Mr. Milosevic may be banking on the theory that, having averted a clash this time, NATO will find it harder to muster the political will for another showdown if he slips back into his old ways in the weeks and months ahead.... A lasting settlement is a long way off, as is the day NATO can be confident that its forces will not be needed in Kosovo."

SINGAPORE: "Holbrooke Wrests Only Some Small Concessions"

The pro-government Business Times editorialized (10/15): "This week, the cheering in the West over the latest deal with the Serbs on Kosovo made it sound as if eternal peace is about to descend on the Balkans. In fact, all that U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke has done is to wrest some small concessions from Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic--whose words are hardly ever any good anyway.... Of course the Holbrooke deal is a welcome, if temporary, respite to the misery in Kosovo.... But is the West really persuaded that Mr. Milosevic can be trusted to keep an agreement?... Western leaders want to keep Kosovo within Yugoslavia at all costs because they fear that letting Kosovo go would cause further instability in the volatile Balkans region. It is a threat to their own stability and a likely source of a new influx of refugees. This is the West's little secret. This is the reason Western leaders are prepared to deal with Mr. Milosevic despite his record in the Bosnian conflict. So, there will be a peace of sorts in Kosovo and it may last a while. But the Balkan region is inherently unstable and a further fracturing of Yugoslavia probably cannot be avoided, given its history. The potential for another civil war in Europe remains ever present. The Balkans should remain on the radar screens of all Western leaders, even as they deal with pressing economic, financial and political problems elsewhere."

SOUTH KOREA: "Is Peace On The Way?"

Koh Dae-hoon wrote in business-oriented Joong-Ang Ilbo (10/15): "The seeds of conflict are very much alive. First of all, the European security monitoring team will have neither the authority nor the means to deflect any future conflicts in the region. Serbia's delaying tactics could also unexpectedly aggravate the situation further. The Albanians' willingness to fight until full independence is secured also poses a potential source for serious unrest. As long as the animosities between Serbs and Albanians do not go away, Kosovo will remain a time-bomb. The whole Balkan area continues to be unstable as a result."

                               SOUTH ASIA

INDIA: "The Never-Ending Balkan Story"

The right-of-center Indian Express ran this comment by Saeed Naqvi (10/16): "Two aspects of the agreement are likely to invite comment in the coming weeks. A major humanitarian disaster has been averted, and to this extent Western intervention has been on behalf of ethnic Albanians who are predominantly Muslims. But the intrusive diplomacy that the agreement entails, the extent to which it impinges on issues of Belgrade's sovereignty, is no trifling issue. There were two views on whether the UN Security Council had authorized action on this specific occasion. Is the international system role of global policemen? That the Balkans continue to erupt along ethnic and religious lines will continue to surprise those not acquainted with the history of the region.... In the former Yugoslavia, where the Ottoman Empire left sizeable Muslim populations in its wake...historical memory is simply mobilized for nationalist politics. That is what Bosnia was all about....

"There were fierce differences between the Europeans and the Americans on the one hand, and among themselves on the other, on how Bosnia was to be managed. The Americans were more sensitive to hostile opinion in the Muslim world.... Compared to Bosnia, the West has shown greater urgency in handling Kosovo. First, the West was keen not to have a deep divide within NATO. Milosevic's continued ethnic cleansing in Kosovo would have brought Turkey into conflict with Greece. Moreover, the gains the moderate appear to be making in countries like Algeria and Iran would have been exposed to risk if the hardliners in those societies had been given an occasion to cite Western indifference to Muslim interests everywhere, including Kosovo."

"Kosovo Accord Leaves Many Questions Unanswered"

The centrist Hindu's Batuk Gathani wrote (10/16): "The accord-on Kosovo...has averted controversial NATO air strikes against Serbia, but the eleventh hour settlement raises more questions than it answers. There are many imponderables looming over the Kosovo horizon, as ethnic Albanians under the influence of kosovoan secessionists have vowed to fight for total independence. This is not acceptable either to the Western powers or to Serbia.... If relations between Serb security forces and ethnic albanian further deteriorate, international peacekeepers can become easy military targets and human shields. Such an eventuality would warrant instant an military response from nato. In such an eventuality, NATO will have to go through the process of seeking a fresh mandate. It is argued that diplomacy backed by credible military threat can always work. This time the Americans made sure that it worked.... So far, even Holbrooke has not made much headway on autonomy for Kosovo's 90 per cent Albanian majority.... At best, Belgrade can offer autonomy to Kosovo under the momentum of the current political agreement."

PAKISTAN: "A Breakthrough On Kosovo"

Islamabad's radical, pro-Iran Muslim held (10/15): "Holbrooke has proven yet again that he is the man of peace and that tough talks and political skills in politics are far better than the language of military attacks and Tomahawk missiles, earlier used by the United States against Iran, Iraq, Somalia, Afghanistan and Sudan.... However, the international community and NATO should be vigilant since Milosevic has never fulfilled his commitments to the United Nations, European Union and NATO. Kosovo is not out of the emergency yet.... One would also like to commend the resolve of NATO, which formally moved to the verge of air strikes. Also, the U.S. president played a positive role by announcing that the United States would fully participate in the airstrikes to save the Kosovar people from an imminent genocide."

                             LATIN AMERICA

BRAZIL: "Bombings Would Only Aggravate Situation"

Center-right O Estado de Sao Paulo ran this piece by Brazilian diplomat Antonio Amaral de Sampaio (10/15): "It seems doubtful, considering the Belgrade's dictator's obstinacy and combative spirit of its people, that only aerial attacks will give rise to the acceptance of UN resolutions. It may even happen that such measures will aggravate the situation, reinforce the Serbian resolve, cause more suffering to the Kosovo people and encourage in Moscow the supporters of the return of the confrontation of the outdated Cold War, as has just threatened the Russian Congress and Defense Minister. Yugoslavia is reduced to two similar 'republics' because both are Slavic: Serbia and Montenegro. The first oppresses the second one, meaning that the federation may be with its days numbered. The most urgent and immediate issue, however, is Kosovo. The province shows its sociological peculiarities that both bring them closer and keeps Albania away from Yugoslavia. For the government in Belgrade, the separation of that province, or even the official recognition of its regional peculiarities...is inadmissible."

CHILE: "Brief Interruption"

Top-circulation, conservative La Tercer (10/14) carried this editorial: "The latest conversations between U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke and President Milosevic could be the prelude to an agreement that can bring peace to thousands of people who today survive in what seems more like a cemetery, surrounded by hatred and cruelty that no nationalism can justify."

MEXICO: "Balkan Kaleidoscope"

Nationalist, pro-government Excelsior held (10/14): "The United States finally reached an agreement with the government of Slobodan Milosevic, which will prevent the air strike that was in the works since several days ago. However, President Clinton warned that the military preparations will continue and that the Yugoslavian president will not fulfill its desires to dominate the region. Milosevic has four days to demonstrate in reality that the persecution of the Albanian minority in Kosovo has stopped. Russia, which was against the (military) aggression has welcomed the truce, and President Clinton has noted that Milosevic would pay the price of any violation of the agreements.... Meanwhile, the great powers are interested in keeping the Balkans as a fragmented and weak region. Germany is exercising influence in Croatia, and the U.S. influence is increasing in the former Yugoslavian provinces. The situation is further complicated by religious rivalries. The Balkan kaleidoscope is broken in pieces and nobody will be able to reintegrate to its original size."

PANAMA: "To Avoid A New Infamy"

Independent El Universal de Panama (10/14) ran an inside editorial that said, "It is difficult to find another region in the world that may have given more shocks to humanity.... For the Yugoslav President Milosevic, the dilemma is clear: Either the persecution against the Albanians in Kosovo is stopped or the NATO artillery...would impose its power against the Yugoslav military actions against the refugees.... The latest outcome, that began with Milosevic's apparent acceptance of NATO's ultimatum...highlights once again that diplomacy is searching for and finding effective formulas beyond the established procedures in international organisms.... But it is a good symptom that the world demonstrated effectiveness in mobilizing to avoid a new infamy."

PERU: "Taming Milosevic's Stubborness"

Respected El Comercio opined (10/13): "The situation in Kosovo has reached a breaking point. Last night, NATOo was on maximum alert ready to fulfill the orders of the UN Security Council if Serbian President Milosevic had not abandoned his intransigent position. Vis-a-vis (Milosevic's) barbaric acts and refusal to negotiate, the international community's response is legitimate and opportune. The EU, the so-called Contact Group, the UN, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and America's direct involvement through special envoys, have played a key role in trying to stop the massacres and tame Milosevic's stubbornness."

For more information, please contact:

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Telephone: (202) 619-4355

10/16/98

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